ERU/USD managed an inside day to start the new week following Friday’s rally to fresh 2014 and 2.5 year highs. Bears are looking for a close below Friday’s low to ease the current bullish pressure and a close below the $1.3824 Feb 28 high to hint at a correction back to the $1.3695-1.3732 region. While the $1.3852 level supports bullish focus dominates with the pair targeting a retest of the 2011 highs.
R 4: $1.4247 2011 High Oct 27 2011
R 3: $1.4199 High Oct 28 1011
R 2: $1.3920 21 week upper Bollinger band, Rising daily channel top
R 1: $1.3915 High Mar 7
LP: $1.3865
S 1: $1.3852 Low Mar 7
S 2: $1.3824 High Feb 28 now support
S 3: $1.3743 21-DMA
S 4: $1.3695 Low Feb 28
The break below the $1.6686 Mar 6 low to start the new week eased the previous bearish pressure with the close below the 21-DMA ($1.6669) adding weight to the bearish case for a continuation lower. Bulls will look for a close above $1.6686 to confirm a false break lower and hint at a retest of 2014 highs while bears look for a close below $1.6583 to target a retest of the 100-DMA ($1.6386).
R 4: $1.6844 21 week upper Bollinger band
R 3: $1.6823 2014 High Feb 17
R 2: $1.6786 High Mar 7
R 1: $1.6686 Low Mar 6 now resistance
LP: $1.6634
S 1: $1.6622 Low Mar 10
S 2: $1.6604 38.2% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
S 3: $1.6583 Low Feb 24
S 4: $1.6532 55-DMA
The move higher Friday stalled ahead of the Y103.88 resistance with bulls looking for a close above to reconfirm bullish focus. Initial support is now noted at Y103.15 on the hourlies but bears will continue to look for a close below Y102.83 to ease the bullish pressure and see the pair dipping back towards key support noted at the 100 and 21-DMA’s. A close above Friday’s high sees immediate focus shift to the Y104.92 Jan 16 high and the 2014 high beyond that.
R 4: Y105.44 2014 high Jan 2
R 3: Y104.92 High Jan 16
R 2: Y103.88 Low Jan 20 now resistance
R 1: Y103.43 Hourly resistance Mar 11
LP: Y103.27
S 1: Y103.15 Hourly support Mar 10
S 2: Y102.83 Low Mar 7
S 3: Y102.37 21-DMA
S 4: Y102.16 100-DMA
Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at Y143.07 but bears will continue to look for close below Friday’s Y142.54 low to ease the immediate bullish pressure that sees bulls targeting a retest of the 2014 and then 2013 highs. Bulls need a close above Friday’s high to reconfirm bullish focus. A close below Friday’s low sees focus shift back to the Y140.51-141.29 region where key moving averages and the Feb monthly high are noted.
R 4: Y145.68 2013 high Dec 27
R 3: Y145.10 2014 high Jan 2
R 2: Y144.41 Low Dec 31 now resistance
R 1: Y143.79 High Mar 7
LP: Y143.17
S 1: Y143.07 Hourly support Mar 10
S 2: Y142.54 Low Mar 7
S 3: Y141.29 High Feb 21 now support
S 4: Y141.07 55-DMA
