EUR/USD sees the daily and hourly studies remain weak. They now turn attention to moving averages at $1.3632/48. Further resistance is now at $1.3774 and the $1.3811/29 region from a number of daily highs, with the daily Bollinger band top also in that range at $1.3815. Bulls need to push on to the $1.3894 Dec 27 reversal high to help negate the weaker tone. Initial support and resistance are from the 55 & 5-DMAs of $1.3616 and $1.3715.
R 4: $1.3894 High Dec 27
R 3: $1.3874 Monthly resistance line from Jul 2008
R 2: $1.3825/29 Bollinger band, High 25 Oct
R 1: $1.3811/18 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18, Dec 30/31
LP: $1.3694
S 1: $1.3643/48 Low Feb 27, 21-DMA
S 2: $1.3632 100-DMA
S 3: $1.3594 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3562 Low Feb 13
GBP/USD bulls are focused on a 50% retracement of the decline from $1.6823, coming in at $1.6703 and the 61.8% at 1.6731 although the studies are weakening, so bears are focused on Fibonacci retracements of the February advance at $1.6605 and $1.6537. The daily slow-stochastic study recently completed a bear-cross, while 10-day momentum is also weakening and now threatening a break of the zero line.
R 4: $1.6878 Monthly high of Nov 2009
R 3: $1.6870 Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6823/26 High Feb 17, 138.2% projection level
R 1: $1.6703 50% of pullback from $1.6823
LP: $1.6686
S 1: $1.6603/05 Former reversal high Jan 2, Fibonacci level
S 2: $1.6583 Low Feb 24
S 3: $1.6537/60 50% of February rally, 21-DMA
S 4: $1.6517 High Jan 10
USD/JPY sees weakening daily studies as the market pushes below the Ichimoku cloud base at Y102.28 and the 100-DMA of Y101.86, which turn initial resistance along with the Tenkan line and 21 & 5-DMAs within Y102.11/20. A close below the cloud base would be the first since November as the pair traded below the cloud at the start of February but failed a close below there
R 4: Y103.99 Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Y103.37/65 55-DMA, 61.8% level
R 2: Y103.10 50% of 2014 decline
R 1: Y102.74/81 High 18 Feb, Daily Kijun line
LP: Y101.74
S 1: Y101.38 Low 17 Feb
S 2: Y101.21 1% lower band
S 3: Y100.61/75 High Sept 11 & 61.8% Y97.62-105.44, Early Feb lows
S 4: Y100.20 200-day moving average
ERU/JPY also sees the daily slow-stochastic study remain weak after completing a bear-cross. The pair is now threatening a break below the Ichimoku cloud of Y139.27 with the Kijun line and 21-DMA slowing progress ahead of there at Y139.34/43. The Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud & 5-DMA now form initial resistance at Y140.05/17.
R 4: Y141.96/142.04 Lows Jan 3, 9
R 3: Y141.70 1% Upper Band
R 2: Y141.15/29 55-DMA, High Feb 21
R 1: Y140.99 61.8% retracement level
LP: Y139.40
S 1: Y139.27/34/43 Ichimoku cloud base, Kijun line, 21-DMA
S 2: Y138.85 100-DMA
S 3: Y138.46/67 50.0% Y131.22-145.69, Low 12 Feb
S 4: Y138.11 High Feb 3
