EUR/USD sees continuing risks of the daily and hourly studies turning lower as bears get ready to focus on a minor support line at $1.3686 and moving averages at $1.3661, $1.3623/38. Resistance is now in the $1.3811/29 region from a number of daily highs, with the daily Bollinger band top just ahead of there at $1.3795. The 5-DMA also comes in at $1.3727. Bulls need to push on to the $1.3893 Dec 27 reversal high to negate this risk
R 4: $1.3874 Monthly resistance line from Jul 2008
R 3: $1.3829 High 25 Oct
R 2: $ 1.3811/18 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18, Dec 30/31
R 1: $1.3795 Daily Bollinger band top
Latets price: $1.3713
S 1: $1.3661/86 55-DMA, Minor support line 6 Feb
S 2: $1.3623/38 100, 21-DMA
S 3: $1.3594 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3562 Low Feb 13
GBP/USD holds just under the 5-DMA of $1.6677 as bears attempt to turn the daily studies back lower and focus on Fibonacci retracements of the February advance at $1.6605 and $1.6537. Those daily studies show signs of weakening with a potential bear-cross in the daily stochastic study. Resistance is from that 5-DMA and near-term Fibonacci level of $1.6763 ahead of the top of the Bollinger band at $1.6817 and high at $1.6823.
R 4: $1.6878 Monthly high of Nov 2009
R 3: $1.6823/26 High 17 Feb, 138.2% projection level
R 2: $1.6817 Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.6677 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.6645
S 1: $1.6625 Hourly low
S 2: $1.6603/05 Former reversal high Jan 2, Fibonacci level
S 3: $1.6528/37 21-DMA, 50% of February rally
S 4: $1.6517 High Jan 10
USD/JPY recovers the Tenkan line and 5-DMA at Y102.08/27 but the daily studies still show signs of weakening with potential for a bear-cross in the daily stochastic study. At the same time, 10-day momentum is trying to push into negative territory. However, bears face additional support from the Ichimoku cloud base at Y101.57. Near-term resistance is Y102.74/86.
R 4: Y103.91 Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Y103.40/65 55-DMA, 61.8% level
R 2: Y103.10 50% of 2014 decline
R 1: Y102.74/86 High 18 Feb, Daily Kijun line
Latest price: Y102.45
S 1: Y101.53/60 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% level, Cloud base, 100-DMA
S 2: Y101.38 Low 17 Feb
S 3: Y100.61/75 High Sept 11 & 61.8% Y97.62-105.44, Early Feb lows
S 4: Y100.55 200-day moving average
EUR/JPY holds over the 21-DMA and Kijun line, which turn initial support with the Tenkan line within Y139.49/62/86 and have bulls focused on the Fibonacci level at Y140.99. However, this level has capped recently and the daily studies are starting to weaken, following the already-soft weekly studies.
R 4: Y142.50 Ichimoku Cloud top
R 3: Y141.96/142.04 Lows Jan 3, 9
R 2: Y141.25/39 55-DMA, 1% Upper Band
R 1: Y140.99 61.8% retracement level
Latest price: Y140.56
S 1: Y139.38/59/86 21-DMA, Kijun line, Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud
S 2: Y138.67 Low 12 Feb
S 3: Y138.44/46 Ichimoku cloud base, 100-DMA, 50.0% Y131.22-145.69
S 4: Y138.11 High Feb 3
