EUR/USD turns around to retest falling channel top as support at $1.3624 – bears eye a break back into the channel to test key support noted around $1.3600 level, the 50.0% and Sept 6 support line are noted at $1.3594/96 and the 21-DMA & 100-DMAs are seen just above. Weekly studies are bearish and a break below this level would negate the upside channel breakout, however we note daily studies still rise adding risk to retest yesterday’s high at $1.3683.
R 4: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 3: $1.3720/39 Daily Bollinger band top, High Jan 24
R 2: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
R 1: $1.3649 55-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3631
S 1: $1.3624 Dec 30 falling channel top
S 2: $1.3601/03/12 21-DMA, High Jan 29, 100-DMA
S 3: $1.3552/55 Low Feb 7, High Feb 5
S 4: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD rose to retest July support line which becomes initial res at $1.6505, just above Feb 11 high at $1.6494. Daily studies rise and bulls eye a retest and a break above could start a rise to $1.6668 reversal high from Jan 27. However, we note monthly studies are overbought and failure to retest the rising support line could threaten a return to Feb 4 low at $1.6257. But we note weekly studies are mixed and we await a breakout to confirm the current trend.
R 4: $1.6634/39/43 200-month MA, Daily Bolli top, High Jan 23
R 3: $1.6603 Former reversal high Jan 2
R 2: $1.6526/33/36 Low Jan 29, High Dec 30, Low Jan 28
R 1: $1.6494/6505 High Feb 11, Redrawn July support line
Latest price: $1.6456
S 1: $1.6407/18 5-DMA, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.6374/83 5-DMA, Low Feb 10
S 3: $1.6345/49/57 Highs Feb 4, 6, 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 4: $1.6290/6310 Low Feb 3, Low Jan 17
USD/JPY stalls after closing above Y102.50 level yesterday – daily studies sharply rise but we note weekly and monthly studies are bearish and bulls require further gains to continue the recovery – key resistance is around Y103.00, the daily Kijun at Y103.05 and 50.0% of Y105.44-100.76 at Y103.10. However, failure to continue pushing higher adds pressure lower and could see bears test the redrawn Nov 2012 support line at Y101.14
R 4: Y104.08/09/11 Lows Jan 3, Jan 15, Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Y103.44 55-day moving average
R 2: Y103.05/10 Daily Kijun, 50.0% Y105.44-100.76
R 1: Y102.86/87 Low Jan 13, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y102.51
S 1: Y101.99/102.08 Lows Feb 10, 11
S 2: Y101.77/85 Low Jan 27 & High Feb 5, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y101.45/53 Cloud base, Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y101.14 Redrawn Nov 2012 support line
EUR/JPY appears to stall after breaking back above the Nov 2012 support line, we note daily studies continue to rise and a hold above the support line adds risk higher. Initial res at Y140.30/50 – the Feb 11 high and Jan 13 low. A break above targets the 55-DMA at Y141.18, however, we remind that weekly/monthly studies slide which limits upside moves. Key support is Nov 2012 support line at Y139.48 and a break below could restart the bearish trend.
R 4: Y141.96/142.04 Lows Jan 3, 9
R 3: Y141.50 Low Jan 6
R 2: Y140.96/99/141.16 Weekly Tenkan, 61.8% Y169.96-94.12, 55-DMA
R 1: Y140.30/50 High Feb 11, Low Jan 13
Latest price: Y139.80
S 1: Y139.48 Nov 2012 support line
S 2: Y138.90/139.05 Lows Jan 30, 29
S 3: Y138.46 Daily Ichimoku cloud base & 50.0% Y131.22-145.69
S 4: Y138.11/17/26 High Feb 3, Low Feb 7, Daily Tenkan line
