EUR/USD continues to edge higher and pops above the falling channel top – now initial support at $1.3630. Bears aim to retest channel top and a break below could retest Sept 6 support line at $1.3591. Further losses could turn monthly studies lower, weekly studies remain bearish but are stalling in their descent. Failure to break back into the channel could see bulls return to test the July 2008 resistance line which is further res at $1.3842.
R 4: $1.3842 Monthly resistance line from Jul 2008
R 3: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 2: $1.3730/39 Daily Bollinger band top, High Jan 24
R 1: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
Latets price: $1.3659
S 1: $1.3630 Dec 30 falling channel top
S 2: $1.3601/03/11 21-DMA, High Jan 29, 100-DMA
S 3: $1.3552/55 Low Feb 7, High Feb 5
S 4: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD stalls around the 55-DMA and just below 21-DMA which is initial resistance at $1.6445, daily studies are near oversold but have lost some bullish tone. Bulls require a retest of the former July support line now at $1.6494, failure to break above adds downside risk. Initial support is the 5-DMA and yesterday’s low at $1.6374/83, but key support at $1.6252/62 – the Feb 5 low and 50.0% level which bears need to break below to confirm a new downtrend.
R 4: $1.6603 Former reversal high Jan 2
R 3: $1.6526/33/36 Low Jan 29, High Dec 30, Low Jan 28
R 2: $1.6476/94 23.6% $1.5855-1.6668, Redrawn Former July support line
R 1: $1.6445 21-DMA
Latest price: $1.6417
S 1: $1.6374/83 5-DMA, Low Feb 10
S 2: $1.6345/49/57 Highs Feb 4, 6, 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 3: $1.6290/6310 Low Feb 3, Low Jan 17
S 4: $1.6252/62/67 Dly Bolli base, 50.0% $1.5855-1.6668, 100-DMA
USD/JPY has been attempting to close above the former Nov 2012 support line, now seen at Y102.40, and bulls likely aim above again today. However, further failure to close above could see bears regain control while weekly studies slide and monthly studies remain overbought. Initial support is around Y102.00 level but below here is the daily cloud base at Y101.44 and key support seen at Y100.76 – the Feb 4 low, bears require a close below this level
R 4: Y104.01/08/09 Daily Ichimoku cloud top, Lows Jan 3, Jan 15
R 3: Y103.42 55-day moving average
R 2: Y102.94/103.05/10 21-DMA, Daily Kijun, 50.0% Y105.44-100.76
R 1: Y102.40/45 Former Nov 2012 support line, 38.2% of Y97.62-105.43
Latest price: Y102.35
S 1: Y101.99/102.08 Low Feb 10, Hourly low
S 2: Y101.77/85 Low Jan 27 & High Feb 5, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y100.61/76 High Sept 11 & 61.8% of Y97.62-105.44, Low Feb 4
EUR/JPY holds above the former Nov 2012 support line and bulls now eye the Jan 2 resistance line which is part of initial res at Y140.07. A break above this level targets the Y141.00 level where key resistance is noted from weekly Tenkan line, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12 and 55-DMA at Y140.96/99/141.16, a break above could turn weekly studies higher, however monthly studies are reversing from overbought which suggests long-term risk is to the downside.
R 4: Y141.50 Low Jan 6
R 3: Y140.96/99/141.16 Weekly Tenkan, 61.8% Y169.96-94.12, 55-DMA
R 2: Y140.50 Low Jan 13
R 1: Y139.95/140.02/07 High Jan 30, 21-DMA, Jan 2 resistance line
Latest price: Y139.78
S 1: Y139.35/36 Hourly low, Nov 2012 support line
S 2: Y138.46 Daily Ichimoku cloud base & 50.0% Y131.22-145.69
S 3: Y138.09/11/17 Daily Tenkan line, High Feb 3, Low Feb 7
S 4: Y137.49/54/86 Weekly Kijun, High Feb 5, 100-DMA
