EUR/USD closed back above Sept 6 support line which bears look to retest at $1.3587 – break below could start another decline after bulls were capped by Dec 30 falling channel top at $1.3636. However, daily studies are a little bullish and a break above channel top targets 55-DMA at $1.3647 followed by key resistance around $1.3700. But we note weekly/monthly studies are bearish and failure at channel top could start a decline to channel base at $1.3424.
R 4: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 3: $1.3728/39 Daily Bollinger band top, High Jan 24
R 2: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
R 1: $1.3636/47 Dec 30 falling channel top, 55-DMA
Latest price: $1.3621
S 1: $1.3601/03/09 21-DMA, High Jan 29, 100-DMA
S 2: $1.3580/87 5-DMA, Sept 6 support line
S 3: $1.3552/55 Low Feb 7, High Feb 5
S 4: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD recovers some of its recent losses to climb back above the $1.6400 level – daily studies show potential to turn higher and bulls aim to retest the former July support line at $1.6483, however ahead of here is the 21-DMA at $1.6443. But we note weekly/monthly studies remain bearish/overbought, failure to return to the July support line adds risk lower and confirms the trend reversal. Initial support is around $1.6357 – the 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6668
R 4: $1.6603 Former reversal high Jan 2
R 3: $1.6526/33/36 Low Jan 29, High Dec 30, Low Jan 28
R 2: $1.6476/83 23.6% $1.5855-1.6668, Redrawn July support line
R 1: $1.6443 21-DMA
Latest price: $1.6412
S 1: $1.6345/49/57 Highs Feb 4, 6, 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 2: $1.6290/6310 Low Feb 3, Low Jan 17
S 3: $1.6249/62/63 Dly Bolli base, 50.0% $1.5855-1.6668, 100-DMA
S 4: $1.6220/30 Low Dec 17, 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6668
USD/JPY returns to former Nov 2012 support line at Y102.37 and price action testing above while daily studies also climb. Initial resistance now around Y103.00 level which contains the 21-DMA and daily Kijun line, above the Nov 2012 support line could see a return to Jan 2 high at Y105.44, however, we note weekly studies are bearish and monthly studies overbought which sees longer-term risk to the downside – initial support is daily Tenkan at Y102.10.
R 4: Y104.55/59 Lows Jan 2, Jan 8
R 3: Y103.98/104.08/09 Daily Ichimoku cloud top, Lows Jan 3, Jan 15
R 2: Y103.41 55-day moving average
R 1: Y102.97/103.05/10 21-DMA, Daily Kijun, 50.0% Y105.44-100.76
Latest price: Y102.40
S 1: Y102.10/17 Daily Tenkan line, High Feb 6
S 2: Y101.77 Low Jan 27 & High Feb 5
S 3: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y101.19/24 Daily Ichimoku cloud base, 100-DMA
EUR/JPY climbs back above former Nov 2012 support line which becomes initial support at Y139.24 – bears aim to retest this level while bulls vie to hold above and eye a retest of Jan 2 resistance line at Y140.25. Daily studies threaten the upside and initial resistance is around Y140.00 level, however, we note weekly/monthly studies are bearish/overbought and failure to hold above the former Nov support line could allow bears to regain control.
R 4: Y141.50 Low Jan 6
R 3: Y141.05/12 61.8% Y169.96-94.12, 55-DMA
R 2: Y140.25 Jan 2 resistance line
R 1: Y139.95/140.03/06 High Jan 30, High Dec 3, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y139.48
S 1: Y139.24 Nov 2012 support line
S 2: Y138.74 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y138.46 Daily Ichimoku cloud base & 50.0% Y131.22-145.69
S 4: Y138.11/17 High Feb 3, Low Feb 7
