EUR/USD now holds below the 100-DMA after breaking below the July support line on Friday – the 100-DMA is initial resistance at $1.3572 and bulls aim to break back above to retest the former support line at $1.3626. However, weekly studies slide and the daily Bollinger band widens to the downside – bears now target the 61.8% at $1.3524 and a close below could accelerate losses to the 200-DMA at $1.3354.
R 4: $1.3699/3707/11 High Jan 14, Low Dec 13, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 3: $1.3651/56 21-DMA, High Jan 7
R 2: $1.3613/14 High Nov 27, 55-DMA
R 1: $1.3572 100 & 5-DMAs
Latest price: $1.3544
S 1: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 2: $1.3508 Low Jan 20, Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: $1.3458 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
S 4: $1.3437 76.4% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD returns to the July support line and bulls are struggling to close back above this level at $1.6433 – bulls require a close above $1.6458 (the Jan 17 high) to return to the $1.6603 Jan 2 reversal high. However, weekly studies are declining from overbought and bears aim to retest the key 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603 at $1.6317 to shift sentiment back to the downside. Monthly studies are overbought and further losses could see them reverse south also.
R 4: $1.6553 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6517 High Jan 10
R 2: $1.6466 High Dec 10
R 1: $1.6433/36 Former Jul 9 support line, 21-DMA
Latest price: $1.6426
S 1: $1.6401 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.6347 Low Jan 13
S 3: $1.6315/17 55-DMA, 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603
S 4: $1.6220/29 Low Dec 17, 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6603
USD/JPY still struggles to close back above the 21-DMA at Y104.56 and current price action already broke above to Y104.70 today. Yesterday saw bears test below the daily Kijun line but failed to break below the Jan 10 low at Y103.83. Daily studies are weakly bullish while weekly/monthly studies are overbought – bulls require a break above Y105.44 to restart the rally while bears target the Y102.86 Jan 13 low shift sentiment south.
R 4: Y106.18 Resistance line from August 1998
R 3: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
R 2: Y104.99/105.06/12 Low Dec 30, Highs Jan 9, 8
R 1: Y104.70 Hourly high
Latest price: Y104.51
S 1: Y104.09/10 Low Jan 15, Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y103.83/97 Low Jan 10, Daily Kijun line
S 3: Y103.56/59 Daily Bolli base, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y102.86 Low Jan 13
EUR/JPY bounced from daily Bolli band base, still key support at Y140.38, bears may retest while weekly studies decline from overbought territory, however daily studies show a touch of strength and we could see bulls pare losses. Key resistance seen around Y142.74 – the 21-DMA and just above is the daily Kijun line at Y143.01. But we note monthly studies are also overbought and we likely see bears declining to the Nov 2012 support line at Y137.88.
R 4: Y142.91/143.01 High Jan 16, Daily Kijun line
R 3: Y142.74 21-day moving average
R 2: Y142.28/36 Former 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69, High Jan 13
R 1: Y141.80/84 Low Jan 15, Hourly high
Latest price: Y141.60
S 1: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 2: Y140.33/38 Low Jan 20, Daily Bolli band base
S 3: Y140.16/20 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69, Oct 2005 high
S 4: Y139.93 55-day moving average
