EUR/USD looks bullish in the short-term after bounce from July support line which is key support at $1.3588. Bears look to retest but we note daily studies show the potential to reverse higher, close above the 21-DMA at $1.3685 could encourage bulls. Further resistance is just above the $1.3700 level followed by the former 23.6% at $1.3752. However, weekly/monthy studies are near overbought and long-term pressure is to the downside.
R 4: $1.3806 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3752 Former 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3893
R 2: $1.3707/11 Low Dec 13, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 1: $1.3685 21-DMA & Hourly high
Latest price: $1.3674
S 1: $1.3662/65 Hourly low, 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 2: $1.3624/30 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832, 5-DMA
S 3: $1.3613/14 High Nov 27, 55-DMA
S 4: $1.3588/94 Jul 9 support line, 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD posted a doji with a long lower-shadow which adds a little pressure higher, however weekly/monthly studies are overbought which likely encourages bears to retest the July support line which is now at $1.6364. Further failure to close below support could see bulls retest the Jan 2 high at $1.6603 and ahead of here initial resistance is the Jan 10 high at $1.6517, bulls have been struggling to close above $1.6500 level for past three sessions.
R 4: $1.6635 200-month MA
R 3: $1.6603 Reversal high Jan 2
R 2: $1.6577 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.6517 High Jan 10
Latest price: $1.6496
S 1: $1.6463 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.6421/26 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6603
S 3: $1.6381/84 Reversal high Jan 2013, High Nov 29
S 4: $1.6360/64 High Dec 13, July Support line
USD/JPY begins to descend through support while daily studies drop sharply – Friday saw a large price swing when bulls rose to just below the Y105.44 Jan 2 high but ended closing below the 21-DMA. Weekly studies also show a sell-signal from overbought and downside pressure mounts – initial support is now the daily Bolli base at Y103.04 and below here is the 38.2% of Y97.62-105.44 at Y102.45. Bulls will aim back above Y104.00, however studies are bearish.
R 4: Y105.77 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
R 2: Y104.99/105.06/12 Low Dec 30, Highs Jan 9, 8
R 1: Y104.35/41 Daily Tenkan line, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y103.43
S 1: Y102.95/103.04 High Dec 12, Daily Bolli base
S 2: Y102.45 38.2% of Y97.62-105.43
S 3: Y101.98/102.14 Low Dec 3, 55-DMA
S 4: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44
EUR/JPY declines below the daily Kijun line and toward the daily Bollinger band base while daily studies also show sharp losses, initial support is the hourly low at Y141.23 and below here is support at Y140.98/99 – the Dec 17 low and 61.8% of the long-term move from Y94.12-169.96. Weekly studies also show signs of reversing from overbought and bears likely target Nov 23 support line at Y137.28 – ahead of here is the 50.0% of Y131.22-145.69 at Y138.46.
R 4: Y145.00 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
R 2: Y143.18/19 Daily Tenkan line, Daily Kijun line
R 1: Y142.78/87 High Jan 6, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y141.43
S 1: Y141.23 Hourly low
S 2: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 3: Y140.75 Daily Bollinger band base
S 4: Y140.16/20 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69, Oct 2005 high
