EUR/USD closed below the 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893 but edged back above the July support line which is now at $1.3576. Bears will aim back below to continue the downward slide, however bulls are trying to close above to flip sentiment to the upside. Studies are mixed – dailies are near oversold while monthly studies are overbought. The short-term could see bulls aim to retest the July 2008 res line at $1.3907 while longer-term sees a slide from this level.
R 4: $1.3691/3707 21-DMA, Low Dec 13
R 3: $1.3656 High Jan 7
R 2: $1.3613/18 High Nov 27, 55-DMA
R 1: $1.3598 5-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3590
S 1: $1.3546/54 100-DMA, Low Jan 8
S 2: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 3: $1.3458 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
S 4: $1.3437 76.4% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD squeezes higher to close back above the 23.6% level at $1.6426 and now initial support. Daily studies are beginning to lose their bearish tone and continued failure to challenge the July support line, now at $1.6341, adds upside pressure. However, weekly and monthly studies are overbought which suggests moves higher will be limited, a close above the $1.6500 level would target the $1.6603 reversal high and above is the 200-month MA at $1.6635.
R 4: $1.6635 200-month MA
R 3: $1.6603 Reversal high Jan 2
R 2: $1.6551 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.6484 High Dec 18
Latest price: $1.6457
S 1: $1.6425/26 5-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6603
S 2: $1.6404/11 21-DMA, Low Jan 2
S 3: $1.6338/41 Low Jan 6, July Support line
S 4: $1.6317 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603
USD/JPY stalls on its way higher to the Y105.44 Jan 2 high, initial resistance still seen at Y105.00 level which currently caps the topside – a break above targets yesterday’s high at Y105.12 before the key Jan 2 high. Daily studies could turn higher but weekly/monthly studies are overbought and failure to retest the Jan 2 high would encourage bears. Initial support is at Y104.55/59 – the lows of Jan 2 and 8 – a break below targets the Y104.00 level.
R 4: Y105.83 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
R 2: Y105.12 High Jan 8
R 1: Y104.98/99 Low Dec 30, Hourly high
Latest price: Y104.86
S 1: Y104.55/59 Lows Jan 2, Jan 8
S 2: Y104.36 21-day moving average
S 3: Y103.91/104.08 Lows Jan 6, Jan 3
S 4: Y103.54/59 Daily Kijun line, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
EUR/JPY holds above the daily Kijun line which is key support at Y142.06, however daily studies remain in sell-mode and weekly/monthly studies are overbought. Bulls aim to break higher but yesterday’s long upper shadow shows selling pressure and failure to close above Y143.00 level adds risk lower. A break below the Kijun line targets the Jan 6 low at Y141.50 and further losses could see a slide back below the long-term 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12 at Y140.99.
R 4: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
R 3: Y143.32/33 High Jan 3, Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y143.17 High Jan 8
R 1: Y142.78/88 High Jan 6, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y142.49
S 1: Y142.06/13 Daily Kijun line, Low Jan 8
S 2: Y141.42/50 Low Dec 13, Low Jan 6
S 3: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 4: Y140.79 Daily Bollinger band base
