EUR/USD failing to close above $1.3800 level and last session failed just ahead of here adding downside risk. 10-week momentum study slips into negative territory and bears look to break below the Nov 7 support line at $1.3712, a move below here could flip sentiment to the downside and next key support is $1.3665 – 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893. However, Nov 7 support line has been a strong barrier and a bounce from here could retest highs around $1.3811.
R 4: $1.3893 High Dec 27
R 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
R 2: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 1: $1.3789 Rising channel base
Latest price: $1.3755
S 1: $1.3712/26 Nov 7 support line, 21-DMA
S 2: $1.3665 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 3: $1.3633/43 55-DMA, Daily Bollinger band base
S 4: $1.3594/98 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893, High Oct 14
GBP/USD continuing to stretch higher alongside rising tech studies; daily/weekly and monthly studies all now push further into overbought territory and we could see the bulls complete the measured move to $1.6690 from double-bottom earlier this year. Next key resistance is 200-month MA at $1.6636 – a key level, noted ahead of here is the August 2011 monthly high at $1.6618. Bears aim for the July support line at $1.6283 to break the bullish trend.
R 4: $1.6690 Double-bottom measured move target
R 3: $1.6653 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6636 200-month MA
R 1: $1.6618 High August 2011
Latest price: $1.6595
S 1: $1.6533/39 High Dec 30, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.6484 High Dec 18
S 3: $1.6443 High Dec 2
S 4: $1.6418 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6592
USD/JPY holds around the Y105.40 level and hit a new high at Y105.43, bears still pressure the Nov 7 support line which is now at Y105.28 and we look for a close below here to begin testing support. Studies are mainly bullish but are all overbought and a break higher could extend gains to Y105.98 – the daily Bolli band top, while a break lower could start a new bearish trend. Further support is the daily Tenkan line at Y104.60 and 21-DMA at Y103.90
R 4: Y107.28 200-month MA
R 3: Y106.18 Resistance line from August 1998
R 2: Y105.97 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y105.43/50 High Jan 1, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
Latest price: Y105.28
S 1: Y105.24/28 Hourly low, Nov 7 support line
S 2: Y104.87 Low Dec 31
S 3: Y104.60 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y103.90/92 21-DMA, High Dec 13
EUR/JPY now pressures the rising channel base which bears already slipped below at Y144.83 – next support is now the Jan 1 low at Y144.42 and a break below targets the daily Tenkan line at Y143.90. However, bulls need to regain the channel to retest the Dec 27 high at Y145.69 to keep the bullish trend going. But we note tech studies are all overbought and we may see some sell-signals if bulls fail to retest resistance.
R 4: Y146.89 3% 21-DMA envelope top
R 3: Y145.60/69 Daily Bolli band top, High Dec 27
R 2: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
R 1: Y145.13/17 Hourly high, Dec 30 high
Latest price: Y144.73
S 1: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
S 2: Y143.90 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
S 4: Y142.28 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69
