EUR/USD tested above highs around $1.3811 to just below the daily Bolli base which is part of initial res at $1.3830. The monthly resistance line still key resistance at $1.3939 but failure to reach this level threatens a retest of Nov 7 support line at $1.3691. Studies are mixed, we note daily studies show potential to reverse higher but weekly/monthly studies add a little caution as are near overbought – initial support is channel base at $1.3772.
R 4: $1.3958 50.0% of $1.6038-1.1877
R 3: $1.3939 Monthly resistance line from Jul 2008
R 2: $1.3893 High Dec 27
R 1: $1.3830/32 Daily Bolli band top, High Oct 28
Latest price: $1.3792
S 1: $1.3772 Rising channel base
S 2: $1.3743/52 5-DMA, 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 3: $1.3691/3713 Nov 7 support line, 21-DMA
S 4: $1.3665 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD left an inside-day after failing to retest the high at $1.6578 and left a new high at $1.6533 which is now initial resistance. Weekly studies have been in overbought territory since September and failure to retest the Dec 27 high at $1.6578 adds further downside pressure. However, monthly/daily studies remain bullish, albeit also near overbought, a break above $1.6578 targets $1.6690 – the double bottom measured move target.
R 4: $1.6690 Double-bottom measured move target
R 3: $1.6632/35 Weekly Bolli top, 200-month MA
R 2: $1.6578 High Dec 27
R 1: $1.6533 High Dec 30
Latest price: $1.6477
S 1: $1.6443/46 High Dec 2, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.6407 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6578
S 3: $1.6379 21-day moving average
S 4: $1.6302 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6578 & May 2012 high
USD/JPY leaves a mini doji candle which has potential to form an evening-star reversal pattern – bears require a break and close below Nov 7 support line at Y104.89 to confirm. We note daily studies also show potential to reverse from overbought and further support is the daily Tenkan line at Y104.59. However, bulls target the monthly resistance line from 1998 at Y106.41, but first a break above key res around Y105.50 is required – the long-term 61.8%.
R 4: Y107.34 200-month MA
R 3: Y106.72 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 2: Y106.41 Resistance line from August 1998
R 1: Y105.41/50 High Dec 30, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
Latest price: Y104.99
S 1: Y104.87/89 Hourly low, Nov 7 support line
S 2: Y104.59 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y103.92 High Dec 13
S 4: Y103.57/61 23.6% of Y97.62-105.41, 21-DMA
EUR/JPY failed to retest Y145.69 and since slipped below Y145.00 – the pair remains in a rising channel from Nov 8 low but bears now eye channel base as initial support at Y144.14. A break below quickly runs into daily Tenkan at Y143.78 and a slide from here could see sentiment and studies turn south. Key support is 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69 at Y142.28 where bulls may regroup, however monthly studies also overbought adding further downside pressure
R 4: Y146.41 Nov 8 channel top
R 3: Y145.69 High Dec 27
R 2: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
R 1: Y145.17/30 Dec 30 high, Daily Bolli band top
Latest price: Y144.72
S 1: Y144.14 Rising channel base
S 2: Y143.78 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
S 4: Y142.28 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69
