EUR/USD holds above Nov 7 support line which is at $1.3665 but also left a huge upper shadow after bulls spiked higher to test resistance just below the $1.3900 level. A monthly resistance line from July 2008 is at $1.3939 and a break above $1.3832 (Oct 25 high) could see bulls target here, however we note 10-week momentum study slips into negative territory adding caution higher. The Nov 7 support line is key at $1.3681 and below here is 38.2% at $1.3665.
R 4: $1.3893 High Dec 27
R 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
R 2: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 1: $1.3769/70 High Dec 13, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.3737
S 1: $1.3698/3707 5-DMA, Low Dec 13
S 2: $1.3681 Nov 7 support line & Reversal high Apr 2007
S 3: $1.3665 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3622 55-day moving average
GBP/USD holds below the $1.6500 level after bulls pushed up to $1.6578 high – daily studies remain in a bullish trend however have dipped a little and we remind that weekly/monthly studies are overbought. Bulls look to close above $1.6500 with eyes on the long-term target at $1.6690 after the double bottom around Mar/Jul this year. However, failure to close above $1.6500 adds downside risk and may see a slide to the Jul 9 support line at $1.6248.
R 4: $1.6690 Double-bottom measured move target
R 3: $1.6630/34 Weekly Bolli band top, 200-DMA
R 2: $1.6578 High Dec 27
R 1: $1.6499 Hourly high
Latest price: $1.6473
S 1: $1.6407/17 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6578, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.6372 21-day moving average
S 3: $1.6302 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6578 & May 2012 high
S 4: $1.6265 Daily Bollinger band base
USD/JPY pushes above the Y105.00 barrier to continue testing the daily Bolli band top seen at Y105.46, just below the key 61.8% of long-term Y124.14 to Y75.35 move which is at Y105.50. A break above would likely target the longer-term resistance line from 1998 at Y106.41, however we note daily, weekly and monthly studies are in overbought territory which adds a little risk lower. Failure to break above Y105.50 and Y106.41 could see bears take control.
R 4: Y107.34 200-month MA
R 3: Y106.63 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 2: Y106.41 Resistance line from August 1998
R 1: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
Latest price: Y105.37
S 1: Y104.64/70 High Dec 20, Nov 7 support line
S 2: Y103.92/99 High Dec 13, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y103.57 23.6% of Y97.62-105.41
S 4: Y103.28 Daily Kijun line
EUR/JPY spiked above Y145.00 but closed below, however bulls today already testing here and a close above targets the Y145.69 level again and could see a bulls test the channel top at Y146.07. But we note daily, weekly and monthly studies are overbought and further failure to close above resistance adds downside risk – initial support is the channel base at Y143.79, a break below here targets the 23.6% level at 142.28.
R 4: Y146.07 Nov 8 channel top
R 3: Y145.69 High Dec 27
R 2: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
R 1: Y145.03 Hourly high
Latest price: Y144.70
S 1: Y143.79 Rising channel base
S 2: Y143.46 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
S 4: Y142.28 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69
