EUR/USD continues to trade just below the $1.3800 level which bulls may retest while they eye the $1.3832 Oct 28 reversal high. A break above may be short-lived as daily studies are firmly in overbought territory, however, weekly and monthly studies are bullish albeit near overbought also. Daily studies may reverse lower if bulls fail to retest $1.3832, initial support is the 5-DMA at $1.3760 and below here is the 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3811 at $1.3689.
R 4: $1.3958 50.0% of $1.6038-1.1877
R 3: $1.3852/54 High Jul 2007, Weekly Bolli band top
R 2: $1.3832 High Oct 28
R 1: $1.3799/3803 High Dec 16, High Dec 12
Latest price: $1.3771
S 1: $1.3760 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.3734/41 Lows Dec 10, 11
S 3: $1.3704/09 High Oct 18, Low Dec 13
S 4: $1.3689 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3811
GBP/USD declined to test support around the 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466 still at $1.6233 and key support. Price action today looks to test initial resistance around the $1.6300 level – $1.6299/6307 and formed from the 5 and 21-DMAs. A break above could see daily studies reverse higher, however we note weekly studies are overbought and bears likely eye a test of the July support line which is now at $1.6156 – a move below could start a new bearish trend.
R 4: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
R 3: $1.6358/60 High Nov 28, High Dec 13
R 2: $1.6321 Low Dec 12
R 1: $1.6299/6307 5-DMA, 21-DMA
Latest price: $1.6281
S 1: $1.6260/63 High Oct 1, Low Dec 13
S 2: $1.6233 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466
S 3: $1.6200 High Nov 21
S 4: $1.6157/61 55-DMA, 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6466
USD/JPY holds above 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92 – now initial support at Y102.43, which bears still eye. However, current price action edged above the daily Tenkan line and now looks to retest the former support line from Nov 7 at Y103.17, a break above may spur bulls to retest the Dec 13 reversal high at Y103.92. However, studies are mostly overbought and weekly studies look about to reverse lower – bears aim to break below the 23.6% to test the Y102.00 level.
R 4: Y104.36 2% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y103.92/98 High Dec 13, Daily Bolli top
R 2: Y103.36/39 Weekly Bolli top, High Dec 10
R 1: Y103.17 Former support line from Nov 7 low
Latest price: Y102.93
S 1: Y102.32/43 21-DMA, 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92
S 2: Y101.98 Low Dec 3
S 3: Y101.51 Daily Kijun & 38.2% of Y97.62-103.92
S 4: Y100.61/77 Sept 11 high, 50.0% of Y97.62-103.92
EUR/JPY still holds in rising channel despite the base moving up to Y141.02. Bulls aim to retest Dec 13 high at Y142.83, however downside pressure mounts as studies look overbought and daily studies are edging lower. Failure to retest Y142.83 could see bears break below the channel base to test the daily Tenkan line at Y140.89 with focus on a test of the 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83 at Y140.09. Below here is the 21-DMA at Y139.60 and the 38.2% at Y138.39.
R 4: Y143.29 Rising channel top
R 3: Y142.83 High Dec 13
R 2: Y142.12/17 Highs Dec 16, 10
R 1: Y141.95 High Dec 17
Latest price: Y141.74
S 1: Y141.22 Low Dec 16
S 2: Y140.89/99 Daily Tenkan line, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 3: Y140.20 Oct 2005 high
S 4: Y140.03/09 High Dec 3, 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83
