EUR/USD stretches further to the upside as bulls target the Oct 28 high at $1.3832, however daily studies are increasingly overbought adding a little downside risk. Failure to retest $1.3832 could see the pair collapse, channel base is at $1.3650 and break below here targets the Nov 7 support line at $1.3535. However, weekly studies are turning higher and a break above the Oct 28 high could target the long-term resistance line from July 2008 at $1.3939.
R 4: $1.3852 High Jul 2007
R 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
R 2: $1.3793 High Oct 23
R 1: $1.3775/77 Low Oct 25, Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
Latest price: $1.3750
S 1: $1.3734 Hourly low
S 2: $1.3681/92 Reversal high Apr 2007, 5-DMA
S 3: $1.3650/60 Channel base, 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3637 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
GBP/USD pops above recent high of Dec 2 at $1.6443 and may continue to stretch further to the upside while tech studies also stretch into overbought territory, which should limit moves to the upside. Next key resistance seen at $1.6496 – the June 2011 reversal high and ahead of here is July 2011 high at $1.6471. Break above could see bulls test the daily Bolli top at $1.6527, however failure adds downside pressure – new 23.6% seen at $1.6322.
R 4: $1.6585 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6527 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6496 High June 2011
R 1: $1.6471 High July 2011
Latest price: $1.6452
S 1: $1.6401/04 Highs Mar 2011, Dec 4
S 2: $1.6358 High Nov 28
S 3: $1.6322 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466
S 4: $1.6301 Low Dec 5
USD/JPY inches toward the Dec 3 high at Y103.38 and bulls look to retest this level and burst above to the daily Bolli band top at Y103.97. But ahead of Bolli top is the key May and June 2012 reversal highs at Y103.74/78. However, studies are firmly in overbought territory and failure to break the Dec 3 high adds downside risk. The rising channel base is seen at Y102.96 and below here targets the daily Tenkan line at Y102.51 followed by the 23.6% at Y102.02.
R 4: Y104.32 Rising channel top
R 3: Y103.98 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 1: Y103.38 High Dec 3
Latest price: Y103.26
S 1: Y102.96 Nov 8 channel base
S 2: Y102.51 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y102.02 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38
S 4: Y101.53/64 Reversal high Jul 8, Low Dec 6
EUR/JPY pressures higher after holding above Y141.00 level and already edged above Y142.00 to a high at Y142.12. Bulls look to close above to test daily Bolli top at Y142.63 and we note the upside channel breakout still targets a measured move to Y143.24. However, studies remain firmly in overbought territory and further upside gains are likely limited – failure to close above Y142.00 could see sentiment reverse – channel top is support at Y141.21.
R 4: Y143.24 Potential measured move target
R 3: Y143.13 4% 21-DMA envelope top
R 2: Y142.63 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y142.12 Hourly high
Latest price: Y142.00
S 1: Y141.21 Rising channel top from Nov 8 low
S 2: Y140.69 Weekly Bollinger band top
S 3: Y140.20/21 Oct 2005 high, Daily Tenkan
S 4: Y140.03 High Dec 3
