EUR/USD holds below daily Bolli top and 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296, key initial res at $1.3627/34 where a top may be forming. Bulls will aim to break above here to retest the Oct reversal high at $1.3832, however daily studies look overbought and 10-day momentum trends sideways, bears eye the Nov 7 support line which is now at $1.3473. Weekly studies also slide and sentiment may turn bearish allowing bears to test the 200-DMA which is seen at $1.3230.
R 4: $1.3763 Low Oct 24
R 3: $1.3706/11 76.4% $1.3832-1.3296, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 2: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
R 1: $1.3627/34 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296, Daily Bolli top
Latest price: $1.3603
S 1: $1.3554/58 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.3503 21-day moving average
S 3: $1.3469/73 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832, Nov 7 support line
S 4: $1.3429 100-day moving average
GBP/USD still squeezing higher and tests above the long-term 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503 – still at $1.6428 but price action today already tested above. Bulls now eye the weekly Bolli top at $1.6550 and a break above here could threaten 200-month MA at $1.6634. We continue to note the double-bottom pattern activated in September still targets $1.6690 – however, daily/weekly studies look overbought adding caution higher – key support at $1.6304, the 23.6%.
R 4: $1.6634 200-month moving average
R 3: $1.6550 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6496 High June 2011
R 1: $1.6443 Hourly high
Latest price: $1.6413
S 1: $1.6331 High Nov 27
S 2: $1.6304 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
S 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
S 4: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
USD/JPY currently fails to break Friday’s high of Y102.61 but we await today’s close to confirm, lower high would add downside risk and a break lower could see overbought daily/monthly studies reverse. Initial support seen just below Y102.00, the high of Nov 25 and low of 28, a break below here likely targets the Channel base at Y101.60 followed by the 23.6% of Y97.62-102.61 at Y101.43. However, a break above Y102.61 targets resistance around Y103.00.
R 4: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 3: Y103.30/31 3% 21-day MA env top, High May 17
R 2: Y102.97/103.03 Rising channel top, Daily Bolli band top
R 1: Y102.61 High Nov 29
Latest price: Y102.41
S 1: Y101.92/94 High Nov 25, Low Nov 28
S 2: Y101.60 Nov 8 channel base
S 3: Y101.43 23.6% of Y97.62-102.61
S 4: Y101.20 Daily Tenkan line
EUR/JPY currently holds below Nov 29 high at Y139.71 while bears already tested the rising channel top as support – initial support now seen as Friday’s low at Y138.97 and a break below this level could see bears test the 23.6% of Y131.22-139.71 at Y137.71. Daily studies look likely to reverse lower and a break back into the channel adds further downside risk. However, a break above Nov 29 high could stretch studies further and continue the bullish trend
R 4: Y140.84 4% 21-DMA envelope top
R 3: Y140.20/21 Oct 2005 high, Daily Bolli band top
R 2: Y140.00 Psychological level
R 1: Y139.71 High Nov 29
Latest price: Y139.29
S 1: Y138.97 Low Nov 29
S 2: Y138.31 Low Nov 28
S 3: Y137.99 Nov 25 high
S 4: Y137.71 23.6% of Y131.22-139.71
