EUR/USD keeps or the time being a MT weak study. Critical 1.4255/1.4306 (MT 61.8%+MT rising channel support) & key 1.4448 (MT 61.8%) are still the MT key resistances to overcome to regain a MT rising bias with before resistances on key 1.3872 (LT falling wedge resistance), 1.3932 (61.8%) & 1.4045 (ST 61.8%). Renewed down move from 1.4255/1.4306 area & now the slight move below ST 61.8% (1.3567) is increasing risk to have only seen a classic technical pullback on this key resistance area & to be now resuming the previous MT falling bias with risk towards critical 1.3046/1.3146 (MT 61.8% & last low) initially & on a breakout then towards 1.26/1.28 area.
It is developing ST weakness within a ST falling channel (1.3360/1.3740). A move back first above key 1.3567 & a break then above 1.3740 (ST falling flag res) is now needed to re-open ST way up. First step would be a to preserve now 1.3496/1.3519 (61.8%+ intraday falling wedge resistance) to rekindle it for a move initially towards 1.3665 (61.8% of 1.3815/1.3422 fall & intraday flag breakout theoretical target).
A worrying return slightly below 1.3567 (ST 61.8%) which is adding to previous weak tone for 1.3360 (ST falling flag sup) initially & then 1.3146 low. However, preserving now 1.3496/1.3519 (61.8%+ intraday falling flag res) break could allow resuming rebound towards 1.3665 (61.8%) area initially.
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BNP Paribas
Corporate & Investment Banking