EUR/USD edged back into rising channel from Jul 10 low, base becomes initial support at $1.3593. A break below could see bears take control and slide to the key support level at $1.3469, the 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832 and Nov 7 support line. Daily studies stretch further into overbought territory and bulls now eye resistance around $1.3626/27 – daily Bolli top and 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296, break above here targets Apr 2007 reversal high at $1.3681.
R 4: $1.3763 Low Oct 24
R 3: $1.3706/11 76.4% $1.3832-1.3296, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 2: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
R 1: $1.3626/27 Daily Bolli top, 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296
Latest price: $1.3616
S 1: $1.3593 Channel base from Jul 10 low
S 2: $1.3554 55-DMA & 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 3: $1.3499 21-day moving average
S 4: $1.3462/69 Nov 7 support line, 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
GBP/USD continues to make upward progress as it almost tests the Jan 2013 reversal high at $1.6381 currently leaving an hourly high at $1.6374. Bulls will aim to break above and target a test of the Mar 2011 high at $1.6401, however strong resistance is expected between these two levels. Daily/weekly studies are overbought and failure to break resistance could see bears return to test the Jul 9 support line at $1.6005, but ahead of here is 23.6% at $1.6252.
R 4: $1.6511 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
R 2: $1.6401 High Mar 2011
R 1: $1.6381 Reversal high Jan 2013
Latest price: $1.6351
S 1: $1.6331 High Nov 27
S 2: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
S 3: $1.6252 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6374
S 4: $1.6200/03 High Nov 21, High Sept 30
USD/JPY keeps pushing higher to test resistance just below the rising channel top and upper daily Bolli band, at Y102.73/74. However, daily studies appear overbought and failure to break above the new hourly high at Y102.61 adds downside risk. Bears look to test the channel base which is at Y101.37, just below the 23.6% of Y97.62-102.61 at Y101.43. A break below this level could turn sentiment lower but we note weekly studies continue to rise.
R 4: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 3: Y103.31 High May 17
R 2: Y103.10 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 1: Y102.73/74 Daily Bolli band top, Rising channel top
Latest price: Y102.31
S 1: Y101.92/94 High Nov 25, Low Nov 28
S 2: Y101.37/43 Nov 8 channel base, 23.6% of Y97.62-102.61
S 3: Y101.09 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y100.61/70 Reversal high Sept 11, 38.2% of Y97.62-102.61
EUR/JPY holds above the rising channel and continues to test resistance – bulls rose to test the daily Bolli band top at Y139.71 but failed to break above. They may retest this level to target the Oct 2005 high at Y140.20, however downside pressure mounts as studies climb further into overbought territory. Bears look to descend back into the channel – top is initial support at Y138.79 and below here is the Nov 28 low at Y138.31
R 4: Y140.54 4% 21-DMA envelope top
R 3: Y140.20 Oct 2005 high
R 2: Y140.00 Psychological level
R 1: Y139.71 Hourly high & Daily Bolli top
Latest price: Y139.30
S 1: Y138.79 Rising channel top
S 2: Y138.31 Low Nov 28
S 3: Y137.99 Nov 25 high
S 4: Y137.71 23.6% of Y131.22-139.71
