EUR/USD attempted a break above the $1.3550 level but bulls ailed to sustain the rally into the channel (base now key resistance at $1.3545), weakening daily studies further. Weekly studies are also bearish and monthly studies appear to be turning south, the downside channel breakout targets $1.3000 in the long-term but ahead of here bears look to break the Jul 2012 support line at $1.3271 and below is the redrawn line at $1.3023.
R 4: $1.3544/45 21-DMA, Channel base from Jul 10 low
R 3: $1.3519 55-day moving average
R 2: $1.3479 5-day moving average
R 1: $1.3442 Low Nov 4 & hourly high
Latest price: $1.3421
S 1: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 2: $1.3383/85 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832, 100-DMA
S 3: $1.3312 200-week moving average
S 4: $1.3293 50.0% of $1.2755-1.3832
GBP/USD tested ground above the $1.6150 level but closed lower as bears begin to eye 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260 once more, initial support alongside 21-DMA at $1.6063/64, respectively. A break below targets tests of 38.2% level at $1.5943 before key support at $1.5894 – Oct 16 low and double-bottom base. A close and hold below here targets measured move to $1.5528 while studies slide. However, bulls look to close above $1.6150 to encourage retest of $1.6260
R 4: $1.6260 High Oct 1
R 3: $1.6203/08 High Sept 30, Daily Bolli band top
R 2: $1.6149 High Nov 18
R 1: $1.6107/09 5-DMA, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.6081
S 1: $1.6063/64 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 2: $1.6033 55-day moving average
S 3: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
S 4: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
USD/JPY holds above the Y100.00 level and now breaks above the Nov 15 high of Y100.44, we look for bulls to close above here to sustain the rally – however most studies are overbought adding downside risk. Initial resistance now at Y100.87 – the Jul 19 high and daily Bolli top, break above here targets Y101.39 and Y101.53, the 76.4% and Jul 8 high. If resistance caps at these levels we see bears retesting the Y100.00 level as support.
R 4: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8
R 3: Y101.39 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79
R 2: Y100.19 Weekly Bolli top
R 1: Y100.87 High Jul 19 & Daily Bolli top
Latest price: Y100.67
S 1: Y99.99/100.01 High Sept 12, Hourly low
S 2: Y99.57/67 Low Nov 19, High Nov 13
S 3: Y99.11 Lows Nov 12 & 13
S 4: Y98.88/96 Daily Kijun, 21-DMA
EUR/JPY posts another outside day after bulls tested resistance just below Y136.00 and then faded down to support around the Y134.00 level. Daily studies now look a little weak and may reverse from overbought territory adding pressure to the downside – however bulls currently are recouping some losses and eye a retest of Y135.95. Key support at Y134.01/15, Nov 12 high and 38.2% of Y131.22-135.95, ahead of here is the Jan 2010 reversal high at Y134.38.
R 4: Y136.70 2% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y136.13 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y135.95 High Nov 20
R 1: Y135.51 High Oct 22
Latest price: Y135.26
S 1: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high & Hourly low
S 2: Y134.01/15 High Nov 12, 38.2% of Y131.22-135.95
S 3: Y133.80 May 22 reversal high
S 4: Y133.58/59 Daily Kijun, 50.0% of Y131.22-135.95
