EUR/USD fades from the channel base to close back below the 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832 – still at $1.3469 – despite rising daily studies. Bulls may look to retest the channel base, now seen at $1.3512, however failure at the 50.0%, or at the 55-DMA at $1.3496, could see sentiment return to the downside. We note the measured move of the channel break targets $1.3000 but bulls may look to regain the channel and negate the pattern breakout
R 4: $1.3590/98 21-DMA, High Oct 14
R 3: $1.3548/54 High Nov 6, Former 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
R 2: $1.3512 Channel base from Jul 10 low
R 1: $1.3497 55-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3449
S 1: $1.3419 Low Nov 14
S 2: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 3: $1.3383 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3365 100-day moving average
GBP/USD broke above the 21-DMA but closed below, leaving a high at $1.6101, new further resistance. Bulls may retest this area while daily studies rise, focus remains on Nov 6 high at $1.6118 – close above cancels the potential head and shoulders reversal pattern. Yesterday’s candle adds a little upside risk as it shows a long lower shadow where bears bounced from the key 55-DMA, at $1.5994, a break below could see a test of the H&S neckline at $1.5818.
R 4: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 3: $1.6118 High Nov 6
R 2: $1.6101 High Nov 14
R 1: $1.6074/75 Hourly high, 21-day moving average
Latest price: $1.6075
S 1: $1.6017/24 5-DMA, Low Oct 29
S 2: $1.5994/99 55-DMA, Low Oct 30
S 3: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 4: $1.5903/04 Daily Bolli band base, Low Nov 4
USD/JPY bursts higher to close above the Y100.00 level once more, bears will be looking to break below and already retesting here, initial support is Y99.99/100.01, the Sept 12 high and hourly low. Weekly studies have turned higher which may see bulls test Y100.61, the Sept 11 reversal high, however daily and monthly studies look overbought adding to downside risk. Break back below Y100.00 likely returns to retest the Nov 12 & 13 lows at Y99.11.
R 4: Y101.39 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79
R 3: Y100.87/95 High Jul 19, Weekly Bolli top
R 2: Y100.61 Reversal high Sept 11
R 1: Y100.31 Hourly high
Latest price: Y100.05
S 1: Y99.99/100.01 High Sept 12, Hourly low
S 2: Y99.66/67 76.4% of Y100.61-96.57, High Nov 13
S 3: Y99.11 Lows Nov 12 & 13
S 4: Y98.96 Daily Tenkan line
EUR/JPY followed daily studies higher to test resistance just below the Y135.00 level – seen as the Sept 19 and Oct 29 highs at Y134.95/99, bulls look to push above here but current price action has faded from this level to retest the Y134.50 level which is the 23.6% of Y131.15-135.51 at Y134.48. A break below here could see a move down to support around Y134.00 where strong support is expected, especially as the 21-DMA is just below at Y133.86
R 4: Y135.73 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y135.51 High Oct 22
R 2: Y135.36/42 Monthly Ichimoku top, Weekly Bolli top
R 1: Y134.95/99 High Sept 19, High Oct 29
Latest price: Y134.59
S 1: Y134.48/49 23.6% of Y131.15-135.51, Hourly low
S 2: Y134.00/01 High Sept 24, High Nov 12
S 3: Y133.80/86 May 22 reversal high, 21-DMA
S 4: Y133.36 Daily Kijun line
