EUR/USD: The move lower overnight took out and closed below the rising daily channel base of July monthly low with the pair having remained capped at the somewhat pivotal $1.3450 level since. Daily tech studies remain at very oversold levels but oscillation around the falling 21 day lower Bollinger band ($1.3360) is expected to continue until a close back above the $1.3545-54 region is seen. Above $1.3450 is needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure a little.
R 4: $1.3598 High Oct 14
R 3: $1.3545/54 High Nov 6, Former 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
R 2: $1.3524 Hourly high & High Nov 4
R 1: $1.3450 NY Hourly high Nov 7
Latest price: $1.3387
S 1: $1.3294/95 50.0% of 1.2760-1.3829, Low Nov 7
S 2: $1.3232 Low Sept 10
S 3: $1.3217 200 day moving average
S 4: $1.3168 61.8% of 1.2760-1.3829
GBP/USD: Pressure currently remains on the somewhat pivotal $1.6118 level with a break above seeing immediate focus shift to retests of the key $1.6260 resistance level. A close back below the 1.6012 low from Nov 6 is needed to relieve the pressure on $1.16118 and shift immediate focus back to tests of the layers of support clustered in the $1.5887-19 region. At present correcting O/S daily tech studies are favouring a break higher.
R 4: $1.6254/60 Daily Bolli band top, High Oct 1
R 3: $1.6206 Channel base Jul 3
R 2: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 1: $1.6118 High Nov 6
Latest price: $1.6086
S 1: $1.6012 Low Nov 6
S 2: $1.5999 Low Oct 30
S 3: $1.5943/55 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260, 55-DMA
S 4: $1.5904/19 Low Nov 4, 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6260
USD/JPY managed to spike above the falling daily trend line on Thursday and dip to test the 200-DMA. The bounce from the lows has seen initial resistance develop on the hourly time frame at the Y98.25 level. Correcting overbought daily tech studies favour further tests of the 200-DMA with a close below the Nov 7 low needed to confirm a break and see focus shift lower to the Y95.83 Aug monthly low.
R 4: Y99.41 Highs Nov 7
R 3: Y99.09 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y98.95 Falling daily trend line
R 1: Y98.25 Hourly resistance Nov 8
Latest price: Y98.09
S 1: Y97.61/75 Low Nov 7, 200-DMA
S 2: Y97.28/33 Daily Bollinger band base, Rising daily trend line
S 3: Y96.96 Low Oct 25
S 4: Y95.83 Monthly Low Aug 8
EUR/JPY: The break lower on Thursday took out the rising daily trend line drawn from the June monthly low before pausing ahead of the Oct monthly low. Initial resistance is noted on the hourly time frame at Y131.79 with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure a little. Overall a close back above the 21-DMA is needed to end bearish aspirations and shift focus back to the recent highs. While the 21-DMA caps a 200-DMA test is favoured.
R 4: Y133.73/80 21-DMA, May 22 reversal high
R 3: Y133.36 Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y132.73 55 day moving average
R 1: Y131.79 Hourly resistance Nov 8
Latest price: Y131.43
S 1: Y131.16 Monthly Low Oct 8
S 2: Y129.97 Low Sept 6
S 3: Y129.38.Low Aug 30
S 4: Y129.19 200 day moving average
