EUR/USD still above the daily Bollinger band at $1.3783 but capped by resistance around $1.3800, initial resistance is very close as yesterday’s high at $1.3793. Studies remain bullish but we remind are becoming increasingly overbought, further upside moves may stall at resistance, monthly Bolli top is at $1.3802 and above is Jul 2007 reversal high at $1.3852. Failure at these levels could spark a reversal, initial support at $1.3743, the 5-DMA.
R 4: $1.3958 50.0% of $1.6038-1.1877
R 3: $1.3893 2% 15-DMA Envelope top
R 2: $1.3852 High Jul 2007
R 1: $1.3802 Monthly Bollinger band top
Latest price: $1.3788
S 1: $1.3743 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.3711 Reversal high Jan 2013
S 3: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
S 4: $1.3631 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3793
GBP/USD attempting to break above the Oct 1 reversal high at $1.6260 but so far has failed to break above, now the channel top joins at $1.6261 adding to initial resistance. A break above could target a move to the Jan 2013 reversal high at $1.6381 and ahead of here key resistance seen around $1.6300. Failure to break $1.6260 again adds to downside pressure and may form a small double-top – base seen around $1.5920, break below would be needed to confirm.
R 4: $1.6381 Reversal high Jan 2013
R 3: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
R 2: $1.6289 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.6260/61 High Oct 1, Channel top from Jul 3
Latest price: $1.6187
S 1: $1.6120/22 Low Oct 23, High Oct 9
S 2: $1.6096 21-DMA
S 3: $1.6046 Channel base from Jul 3
S 4: $1.6002 High Oct 11
USD/JPY made a strong move south to test support around 200-DMA now seen at Y97.32 – dol-yen already slipped below yesterday and today but moved back above. Studies are mainly bearish and a close below the 200-DMA could see bears move to test Y96.57 – the Oct 8 reversal low, followed by the Apr support line at Y96.02. Break below Y96.00 targets the Jun reversal low around Y94.00, however upside risk remains and failure at support could see bulls bounce back.
R 4: Y98.12/14 Daily Kijun line, Daily Tenkan line
R 3: Y98.00 Low Oct 15
R 2: Y97.88 21-day moving average
R 1: Y97.52 23.6% of Y100.61-96.57
Latest price: Y97.43
S 1: Y97.16 Low Oct 23
S 2: Y96.67 Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: Y96.57 Low Oct 8
S 4: Y96.02 Apr 2 support line
EUR/JPY posted a bearish engulfing candle yesterday while daily studies suggest a reversal in overbought territory. Bulls however are attempting to recoup some losses and test resistance around Y134.48 – former 23.6% of Y131.15-135.51. A break above here to challenge dly Bolli top at Y135.14 would cancel the reversal pattern but failure to do so flips sentiment lower, especially while weekly and monthly studies also suggest upcoming reversals.
R 4: Y136.89 Jul 2009 reversal high
R 3: Y135.51/57 High Oct 22, Apr 2009 reversal high
R 2: Y135.14 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y134.48 Former 23.6% of Y131.15-135.51
Latest price: Y134.39
S 1: Y133.80/84 May 22 reversal high, 38.2% Y131.15-135.51
S 2: Y133.33 Daily Kijun line, 50.0% Y131.15-135.51
S 3: Y133.05 21-day moving average
S 4: Y132.84 61.8% Y131.15-135.51
