EUR/USD left a lower high and low and now trades back within the daily Bolli band – the top now part of initial resistance at $1.3691. Studies are mainly bullish but near overbought levels, a break above Jan reversal high at $1.3711 could see a run to the monthly Bolli band top at $1.3774. However, failure to break above resistance could reverse studies lower, initial support is at $1.3646/49, Oct 4 low and 5-DMA, next key suppt at $1.3563, the 23.6%.
R 4: $1.3774 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3740 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.3711 Reversal high Jan 2013
R 1: $1.3691/3704 Daily Bollinger band top, High Oct 18
Latest price: $1.3669
S 1: $1.3646/49 High Oct 3, 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.3598 High Oct 14
S 3: $1.3563/66 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3704, 21-DMA
S 4: $1.3501 Low Sept 19
GBP/USD moves lower leaving a lower high and low after the long upper shadow from Friday. Daily studies turned south also and further losses could see them reverse. Bears eye a test of the 23.6% and 21-DMA at $1.6064/78, break below here targets channel base from Jul 3 at $1.6014. A downside break of this level would target a measured move to $1.5791, however risk upside remains while monthly studies remain bullish – key resistance seen at $1.6260 – Oct 1 high.
R 4: $1.6254/60 Daily Bollinger band top, High Oct 1
R 3: $1.6237 Channel top from Jul 3
R 2: $1.6225 High Oct 18
R 1: $1.6203 High Sept 30
Latest price: $1.6124
S 1: $1.6100/10 High Oct 7, 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.6064/78 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, 21-DMA
S 3: $1.6014 Channel base from Jul 3
S 4: $1.6002 High Oct 11
USD/JPY creeping higher towards daily Ichimoku cloud – base is still at Y98.67 and top now at Y99.13 – ahead of here however is 100-DMA which may prove to be key initial resistance at Y98.38. However, mthly/wkly studies continue to slide – the repeated failure to close above Y100.04 (monthly cloud top) on the monthly chart adds risk lower – failure by bulls to retest Oct 17 high (Y98.77) or the 61.8% at Y99.07 could see bears test the 200-DMA at Y97.23.
R 4: Y99.66 76.4% of Y100.61-96.57
R 3: Y99.07/13 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57, Daily Cloud top
R 2: Y98.67 Daily Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: Y98.38 100-day moving average
Latest price: Y98.31
S 1: Y98.12/14 Daily Kijun line, Hourly low
S 2: Y98.00 Low Oct 15 & 21-DMA
S 3: Y97.56 Low Oct 18
S 4: Y97.23 200-day moving average
EUR/JPY continues to rise toward the Sept 19 high at Y134.95, studies also climb higher and a break above Y134.95 likely targets a move to the Apr 2009 reversal high at Y135.57 and above here is monthly Ichimoku cloud top at Y135.95. Bulls may look to test this level but we note that dly/wkly/mthly slow stochastic studies look overbought and 10-month momentum continues to show negative divergence, cautioning bulls – initial suppt is Oct 19 high at Y134.19
R 4: Y135.57 Apr 2009 reversal high
R 3: Y135.35 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: Y134.95 High Sept 19
R 1: Y134.67 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: Y134.34
S 1: Y134.19 High Oct 18
S 2: Y133.80 May 22 reversal high
S 3: Y133.05 Daily Kijun line
S 4: Y132.96 21-day moving average
