EUR/USD held below the Oct 3 resistance line, now at $1.3554, after testing a little above, bears then tested the downside leaving a low at $1.3480 which has added to support. Daily studies continue to slide and 10-day momentum enters negative territory – a sell signal. Downside risk mounts and a break of the $1.3580 low could see a move to the 38.2% at $1.3439, just above the 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3646 at $1.3436 which seen to be a key support level.
R 4: $1.3598 High Oct 14
R 3: $1.3569/71 Highs Sept 19, Oct 15
R 2: $1.3554 Resistance line from Oct 3
R 1: $1.3532/35 5-DMA, 21-DMA
Latest price: $1.3512
S 1: $1.3501 Low Sept 19
S 2: $1.3480/86 Lows Oct 15, 9
S 3: $1.3462/68 Low Sept 25, Daily Bollinger band base
S 4: $1.3439 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3646
GBP/USD closed above channel base despite bears slipping below, dly studies are nearing oversold levels now but weekly studies are still suggesting a reversal from overbought territory keeping risk lower for now. Initial support is the 38.2% and channel base at $1.5943/50, a break and close below could see bears extend losses and test dly Bolli base at $1.5895 then 50.0% at $1.5845, however failure at channel base targets channel top at $1.6190
R 4: $1.6124 High Oct 8
R 3: $1.6100 High Oct 7
R 2: $1.6061 21-day moving average
R 1: $1.6000/02 Hourly high, High Oct 11
Latest price: $1.5974
S 1: $1.5943/50 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260, Channel base from Jul 3
S 2: $1.5919 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6260
S 3: $1.5895 Daily Bollinger band base
S 4: $1.5845 50.0% of $1.5429-1.6260
USD/JPY appears to be ranging while it attempts to regain ground above the daily Ichimoku cloud – base is now initial resistance at Y98.67 and top seen at Y98.73. A break and close above could see bulls target the 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57 at Y99.07, however monthly studies are still reversing lower and failure at this level could flip sentiment lower. Initial support is the hourly low and 21-DMA at Y98.14/16 – further support seen at Y98.00, yesterday’s low.
R 4: Y99.64/66 Daily Bolli top, 76.4% of Y100.61-96.57
R 3: Y99.07 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57
R 2: Y98.73 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 1: Y98.67 Daily Ichimoku cloud base
Latest price: Y98.46
S 1: Y98.14/16 Hourly low, 21-DMA
S 2: Y98.00 Low Oct 15
S 3: Y97.63 Daily Tenkan
S 4: Y97.34 Falling channel top
EUR/JPY posts a large dark candle erasing all gains from the previous session despite bullish dly studies, however bulls already recouping some losses as they look to test resistance – initial res at Y133.50, the 61.8% level and above here is May 22 reversal high at Y133.80. A break above could target Y134.95 Sept 19 reversal high but failure to regain this high adds risk lower. Support seen at Y132.65 then Y132.49, the Oct 15 low and daily Tenkan.
R 4: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high
R 3: Y134.05 76.4% of Y134.95-131.15
R 2: Y133.80 May 22 reversal high
R 1: Y133.50 61.8% of Y134.95-131.15
Latest price: Y133.05
S 1: Y132.65 Low Oct 15
S 2: Y132.49 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y132.12 Weekly Tenkan line
S 4: Y132.04 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12 & High Oct 8
