EUR/USD continued to push up towards the $1.3711 reversal high of Jan 2013 – however 10-day momentum study has shown negative divergence since Sept 19. Bulls met resistance from the weekly Bollinger band top to leave the Oct 3 high at $1.3646 and now yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle waits to be confirmed. Bears aim to test $1.3518 – the 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3646. Ahead of here, initial support at $1.3539 – yesterday’s low
R 4: $1.3754 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3711 High Jan 2013
R 2: $1.3681/83 Reversal high Apr 2007, Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.3646 High Oct 3
Latest price: $1.3565
S 1: $1.3539 Low Oct 4
S 2: $1.3518 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3646
S 3: $1.3501 Low Sept 19
S 4: $1.3462 Low Sept 25
GBP/USD moved up to almost complete the channel breakout measured move from Sept 18 – measured move targeted $1.6278 and we saw the pair hit a high at $1.6260. However, since then cable has reversed to break back within the rising channel and holds just above $1.6001 – the 21-DMA as initial support. Daily studies are sliding and weekly studies are overbought – bears may aim to test the channel base at $1.5838 but bulls will aim to hold within.
R 4: $1.6260 High Oct 1
R 3: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 2: $1.6107 High Oct 2010 & Channel top from Jul 3
R 1: $1.6064 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260
Latest price: $1.6027
S 1: $1.6001 21-day moving average
S 2: $1.5956 Low Sept 25
S 3: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 4: $1.5919 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6260
USD/JPY slides a little further but its descent slows as it approaches the 200-DMA – support at Y96.69 – ahead of here the daily Bollinger band base is initial support at Y96.89. Bears aim to test these levels while studies slide, the long-term failure to close above the monthly Ichimoku cloud adds pressure to the downside and now we see the pair in a falling channel – the top is resistance at Y98.26 and the base is further support at Y96.06.
R 4: Y98.42 55-day moving average
R 3: Y98.26 Falling channel top from Sept 11 high
R 2: Y98.00 Daily Ichimoku Cloud base
R 1: Y97.49 Oct 4 high
Latest price: Y97.12
S 1: Y96.89 Daily Bollinger band base
S 2: Y96.69 200-day moving average
S 3: Y96.49 Support line from Sept 6 low
S 4: Y96.06 Falling channel base from Sept 11 high
EUR/JPY has descended back toward the former May 22 trendline, now looking to test it as support at Y131.49 which is just above the 50.0% of Y127.98-134.95 at Y131.46. Daily studies slide so break below initial support spurs bears to target Jun 13 support line at Y130.85, ahead of here is 55-DMA at Y131.38. The 50.0% level held as support over the past week and failure again could see bulls return while daily studies become closer to overbought.
R 4: Y133.38 High Sept 11
R 3: Y132.66/79 Daily Tenkan line, 21-DMA
R 2: Y132.37 Daily Kijun line
R 1: Y132.04 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12
Latest price: Y131.77
S 1: Y131.46/49 50.0% of Y127.98-134.95, Former Trendline from May 22
S 2: Y131.38 55-day moving average
S 3: Y130.85 Support line from Jun 13
S 4: Y130.61/64 100-DMA, 61.8% of Y127.98-134.95