EUR/USD descends to the 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3569 but has yet to test as initial support now at $1.3459, this level should be tested as daily studies remain bearish, a break below targets the 38.2% at $1.3392 and then the 200-week MA at $1.3348. However, the pair has struggled to move sharply lower despite daily studies turning south – failure at support could see bulls return and we remind the medium-term is bullish following pennant pattern breakout
R 4: $1.3678/81 Daily Bollinger band top, Reversal high Feb 2007
R 3: $1.3569 High Sept 19
R 2: $1.3519 High Sept 24
R 1: $1.3498 5-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3468
S 1: $1.3459 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3542
S 2: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 3: $1.3392 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3542
S 4: $1.3348 200-week moving average
GBP/USD slowly slips below the channel top and also now the 23.6% at $1.5990 – bears eye yesterday’s low as initial support at $1.5956 followed by the monthly triangle base at $1.5915. Daily studies are still bearish and weekly studies are increasingly overbought so a close back within rising channel could prompt a test of the channel base at $1.5710. However, we remind monthly studies are still reversing higher while a double-bottom pattern awaits confirmation.
R 4: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 3: $1.6107 High Oct 2010
R 2: $1.6073 High Sept 23
R 1: $1.6013/14 Channel top from Jul 3, 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.5982
S 1: $1.5956 Low Sept 24
S 2: $1.5915 Monthly triangle base
S 3: $1.5879/83 Reversal high Feb 1, 38.2% of $1.5429-1.616
S 4: $1.5845 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6163
USD/JPY left a lower low and lower high but within a narrow range as it continues to trade around the band of levels from the daily Kijun at Y98.71 up to the 21-DMA at Y99.15. Dly studies still descend and break below yesterday’s low, at Y98.48, could see bears test Aug 12 support line at Y98.30. A break below here threatens the daily cloud top at Y97.82, but failure to break support could see bulls return to test initial res – the dly Tenkan at Y98.87.
R 4: Y99.67 High Sept 20
R 3: Y99.36 High Sept 23
R 2: Y99.08 100-day moving average
R 1: Y98.87 Daily Tenkan
Latest price: Y98.74
S 1: Y98.48 Low Sept 24
S 2: Y98.30 Support line from Aug 12
S 3: Y98.15 Weekly Kijun line
S 4: Y97.82 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
EUR/JPY slips further while daily studies begin to slide and 10-day momentum threatens a sell-signal if it crosses below the zero-line. Initial support is yesterday’s low at Y132.70 – a break below here targets 21-DMA and dly Kijun line at Y132.10/12. However, weekly and monthly studies are still quite bullish so failure to break below here could encourage bulls to retest Sept 19 high at Y134.95. Ahead of here, initial res is daily Tenkan at Y133.28.
R 4: Y134.64 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high
RS 2: Y133.99 1% 15-day MA envelope top
R 1: Y133.28 Daily Tenkan line
Latest price: Y132.97
S 1: Y132.70 Low Sept 24
S 2: Y132.10/12 21-DMA, Daily Kijun line
S 3: Y131.68 Former Trendline from May 22
S 4: Y130.12 55-day moving average