EUR/USD failed to test Sept 19 high at $1.3569 while dly studies appear to slow – 10-day momentum shows negative divergence. The pair now trades back within dly Bolli band – initial res at $1.3561, just below Sept 19 high. If bulls break above we expect next res at $1.3681 – Feb 2007 reversal high, however failure to break above $1.3569 likely flips sentiment lower. Initial support is at $1.3501 – Sept 19 low, also 5-DMA is just below at $1.3492.
R 4: $1.3711 High Jan 2013
R 3: $1.3693 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.3681 Reversal high Feb 2007
R 1: $1.3561/69 Daily Bollinger band top, High Sept 19
Latest price: $1.3525
S 1: $1.3501 Low Sept 19
S 2: $1.3459 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3542
S 3: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 4: $1.3392 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3542
GBP/USD now looking bearish as dly studies turn lower, bears require a break below former channel top to confirm – now rising support at $1.5989 just below 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6163 at $1.5990. A break below targets mthly triangle base at $1.5915 before testing further suppt at $1.5883 – 38.2% level. Wkly studies also a little bearish and a week of losses could form a shooting-star pattern on wkly chart, however we remind mthly studies still reversing higher. RES 4: $1.6278 Channel breakout measured move target
R 3: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 2: $1.6135 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.6067 High Sept 20
Latest price: $1.6018
S 1: $1.5989/90 Channel top from Jul 3, 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6163
S 2: $1.5915 Monthly triangle base
S 3: $1.5879/83 Reversal high Feb 1, 38.2% of $1.5429-1.616
S 4: $1.5807 5-week moving average
USD/JPY now pauses above Y99.00 but is already testing below a variety of levels – the daily Tenkan, 21 and 100-DMAs – however daily studies are a bit mixed and failure to close below Y99.00 could encourage bulls. Initial support is at Y99.02 – the Sept 12 low, below here is daily Kijun line and 55-DMA at Y98.71/76. However, failure at support may see bulls test resistance, initial res at Y99.67, the Sept 20 high and above here is 61.8% at Y99.94.
R 4: Y101.39 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79
R 3: Y100.61 High Sept 11
R 2: Y99.94 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79
R 1: Y99.67 High Sept 20
Latest price: Y99.13
S 1: Y99.02 Sept 12 low
S 2: Y98.71/76 Daily Kijun, 55-DMA
S 3: Y98.46 Low Sept 16
S 4: Y98.15 Support line from Aug 12
EUR/JPY corrects a little after bulls soared higher to test resistance around Y135.00 – the last two sessions saw bears pare some of the recent gains but bulls managed to hold on above Y134.00 – initial supp is hourly low at Y133.98 and below here is May 22 reversal high at Y133.80. However, studies are mixed but point higher despite being near overbought – initial res at Y134.65, the dly Bolli top and above here is Sept 19 high at Y134.95.
R 4: Y135.57 Apr 2009 reversal high
R 3: Y135.15 2% 15-day MA envelope top
R 2: Y134.95 High Sept 19
R 1: Y134.65 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: Y134.08
S 1: Y133.98 Hourly low
S 2: Y133.80 May 22 reversal high
S 3: Y133.28 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y132.74 High Jul 24