EUR/USD still holds above the weekly resistance line from May 2011 but yesterday’s session left a long upper-shadow to caution bulls and add pressure lower. Failure to break above yesterday’s high, which is initial resistance at $1.3386 – will add further downside pressure and may reverse sentiment to test support. Initial support is at $1.3325, the Sept 11/12 highs, below here is the 5-DMA at $1.3314 and then the 21-DMA at $1.3387.
R 4: $1.3483/85 76.4% of $1.3711 to $1.2746, 55-month MA
R 3: $1.3450/52 Daily Bollinger band top, Reversal high Aug 20
R 2: $1.3400 High Aug 8
R 1: $1.3386 High Sept 16
Latest price: $1.3333
S 1: $1.3325 High Sept 11 & 12
S 2: $1.3314 5-day moving average
S 3: $1.3287 21-day moving average
S 4: $1.3265 Former May 2011 resistance line
GBP/USD failed to close near its highs at $1.5963 and was pushed lower back within the rising channel. The long upper shadow yesterday is evidence of selling pressure, couple this with overbought dly/wkly studies and a reversal is possible. Initial support is at $1.5858 – the 5-DMA, break below targets 23.6% of $1.5429-1.5963 at $1.5837 and the 38.2% is at $1.5759. We also remind mthly studies are reversing higher, so any correction lower may not be long-lived.
R 4: $1.5993 Reversal high Mar 2012
R 3: $1.5963 High Sept 16
R 2: $1.5942 Channel top from Jul 3
R 1: $1.5913/15 Daily Bollinger band top, Former monthly triangle base
Latest price: $1.5898
S 1: $1.5858 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.5837 23.6% of $1.5429-1.5963
S 3: $1.5776 Low Sept 12
S 4: $1.5752/59 Reversal high Jun 17, 38.2% of $1.5429-1.5963
USD/JPY closed back above the 100-DMA – now at Y99.07 – but bears did already slip below. However, current price action is a little higher and initial resistance is seen at Y99.52/54, yesterday’s high and the daily Tenkan line. A break above here targets the 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79 – further resistance at Y99.94, but daily studies remain bearish so failure to break above resistance could flip sentiment to the downside – initial support is the 21-DMA at Y98.91.
R 4: Y100.23 High Sept 6
R 3: Y100.04 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 2: Y99.94 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79
R 1: Y99.52/54 High Sept 16, Daily Tenkan line
Latest price: Y99.18
S 1: Y98.91 21-day moving average
S 2: Y98.71 Daily Kijun
S 3: Y98.46 Low Sept 16
S 4: Y98.22 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
EUR/JPY leaves another decent lower-shadow following another failed attempt to break below the former May 22 trendline – initial support at Y131.82. Bears look to retest this level but continued failure to close below adds pressure higher. Initial resistance at Y132.43, a couple of daily highs, and key resistance seen around the daily Bolli band top at Y133.34. However, we remind that the monthly chart shows overbought studies – adding selling pressure.
R 4: Y133.64 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: Y133.34/38 Daily Bollinger band top, High Sept 11
R 2: Y132.77 Low Sept 11
R 1: Y132.43 High Aug 23 & High Sept 16
Latest price: Y132.25
S 1: Y131.82 Former Trendline from May 22
S 2: Y131.65 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y131.41 21-day moving average
S 4: Y131.10 Daily Kijun line