EUR/USD holds again below Feb 2013 resistance line and bears now testing the 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3452, initial support at $1.3186, just below the daily Bollinger band base at $1.3188. Daily studies remain bearish and a break below here targets the 200-DMA and 5-month MA, key further support at $1.3145. Bears likely aim to close below here but bulls will attempt to hold above, break below could see a decline to Nov 2012 support line at $1.2838.
R 4: $1.3300 High Aug 5
R 3: $1.3288/92 Former May 2011 resistance line
R 2: $1.3255 Resistance line from Feb 2013
R 1: $1.3237 5-day moving average
Latest Price: $1.3189
S 1: $1.3186/88 Daily Bollinger band base
S 2: $1.3145 200-day moving average & 5-month MA
S 3: $1.3103 50.0% of $1.2755-1.3452
S 4: $1.3045 100-week moving average
GBP/USD again managed to close above the 23.6% of $1.4814-1.5718 which has almost reversed daily studies to the upside – another positive close should help. Focus is turning higher and bulls look to rise through res levels and aim to retest the June high at $1.5752 and then the January high at $1.6381 if the pair follow monthly studies higher. Ahead of here, initial res at $1.5592, the Aug 27 high, which held as resistance yesterday and left a slight upper shadow.
R 4: $1.5650 76.4% of $1.5718-1.5429
R 3: $1.5636 55-week MA
R 2: $1.5608 61.8% of $1.5718-1.5429
R 1: $1.5592 High Aug 27
Latest price: $1.5547
S 1: $1.5527 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.5502/05 200-DMA, 23.6% of $1.4814-1.5718
S 3: $1.5454/64 Jul 9 support line, Former Resistance line from Jan 2013
S 4: $1.5429 Low Aug 28
USD/JPY now holding above the daily Ichimoku cloud at Y99.25 and just below the long-term 50.0% of Y124.14-75.35 at Y99.74, bears aim to close back within the cloud to retest the former May 22 trendline at Y98.78, however daily studies are rising and a break above initial res could then test the monthly Ichimoku cloud top at Y100.04. A break above here could flip sentiment higher but we note monthly studies remain overbought.
R 4: Y100.87 High Jul 19
R 3: Y100.04 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 2: Y99.94 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79
R 1: Y99.74 50.0% of Y124.14-75.35
Latest price: Y99.54
S 1: Y99.25 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
S 2: Y98.97 100-DMA
S 3: Y98.76/78 Daily Ichimoku cloud base, May 22 Trendline
S 4: Y98.26/28 Daily Tenkan line, Low Sept 2
EUR/JPY broke out of dly Ichimoku cloud while dly studies begin to turn higher, focus now turning to res, initial res at Y131.48/55, hourly high and 100-month MA. Bulls likely aim to test this level and break above to re-challenge the May 22 trendline – at Y132.06, just above 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12 at Y132.04. Strong res expected here and failure to break above could see sentiment reverse once more as monthly studies are overbought.
R 4: Y132.43 High Aug 23
R 3: Y132.14 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y132.04/06 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12, Trendline from May 22
R 1: Y131.48/55 Hourly high, 100-month MA
Latest price: Y131.20
S 1: Y130.87 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y130.41 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
S 3: Y130.21 Daily Kijun line
S 4: Y129.98 100-day moving average