EUR/USD declined further, stretching dly studies lower, and tested the key support level at $1.2797/2801/04, the May 17 reversal low, Nov 2012 supp line and Oct 2012 reversal low. Daily studies look oversold but weekly and monthly studies are bearish. Break below initial supp could prompt further losses as bears eye the Apr 4 reversal low at $1.2746. However, failure at initial supp could see bulls vie for a correction and test initial res at $1.2877/83.
R 4: $1.3062/75 55-DMA, 200-DMA
R 3: $1.3032/34/41 Jul 3 high, 100-DMA
R 2: $1.2923-43 Low Jul 3, Jul 2012 Supp line, 55-wk MA
R 1: $1.2877/83 50.0% of $1.2043-1.3711, Low Jul 4
Latest price: $1.2810
S 1: $1.2797/2801/04 Reversal low May 17, Supp line Nov 2012 low, low Oct 2012
S 2: $1.2780 Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: $1.2746 Reversal low Apr 4
S 4: $1.2680 61.8% of $1.2043-1.3711
GBP/USD fell through the barrier at $1.5009 and now trades towards the reversal low from Mar 12th at $1.4832 while studies decline further, but daily studies looking more oversold. Currently cable fails to break below Friday’s low at $1.4858 but a break below would test the weekly Bolli band base at $1.4810. Failure here sees bulls returning to retest $1.5009, the May 29 reversal low, but the longer-term risk is to the downside.
R 4: $1.5156 High May 27
R 3: $1.5098 Support line from Mar low
R 2: $1.5049/54 Former 76.4% of $1.4832-1.5752, 5-DMA
R 1: $1.5009 Low May 29
Latest price: $1.4875
S 1: $1.4832/55/58 Reversal low Mar 12th, Low Jul 5
S 2: $1.4810 Weekly Bollinger band base
S 3: $1.4784 Low week of Mar 1st 2010
S 4: $1.4662 High week ending Feb 27th 2009
USD/JPY now moves above the daily Ichimoku cloud for the first time since Jun 11, the top forms part of initial support at $100.84 alongside a few daily highs and lows. Daily and monthly studies look overbought but weekly studies reversed higher, but from the middle of the channel, initial res is at Y101.45, the reversal high from Apr 2009. The monthly chart shows break above cloud top also, close above would encourage bulls but bears aim to break back below.
R 4: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 3: Y102.45/76/89 Monthly Bollinger band top, Highs May 15, 21
R 2: Y102.00/08 Daily Bollinger band top, Low May 21
R 1: Y101.45 Reversal high Apr 2009
Latest price: Y101.10
S 1: Y100.79/83/84/86 May 9 high, May 23 low, Daily Ichimoku top, High Jul 3
S 2: Y99.90/94/95 High Apr 22, High Apr 11
S 3: Y99.19/32 23.6% of Y93.79-100.86, 55-DMA
S 4: Y98.76-87 Weekly Tenkan, Low Jun 3
EUR/JPY now slips back below the 55-DMA after testing the former 23.6% at Y130.33, still initial res. Studies mixed as monthly studies look overbought, daily studies are slipping from overbought levels and weekly studies decline but show potential to reverse higher. Initial supp now at Y128.85, the daily Tenkan line, a break below targets 200-mth MA at Y128.40 just below 21-DMA at Y128.53, which bears may test as supp again but bulls look to the cloud top.
R 4: Y132.40 High May 13
R 3: Y132.04/06/08 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12, Rising channel top, May 31 high
R 2: Y131.04/12/18 Daily Ichimoku cloud top, High Apr 11, Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y130.19/33 Hourly high, 23.6% of Y119.11-133.80
Latest price: Y129.65
S 1: Y128.85 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y128.40/45/53 200-month MA, High Jun 26, 21-DMA
S 3: Y128.01-19 Rising channel base, Highs Jun 18, 14, 38.2%, Daily Kijun line
S 4: Y127.22/56 100-DMA, 21-week MA