EUR/USD descends to break below the 55, 100 and 200-DMAs, holds below and just above initial supp at $1.3034/59, the 61.8% and Jun 24 low. Daily studies bearish and weekly/monthly studies may reverse lower if pair holds below the 200-DMA. The trend appears to be bearish, the 200-mth MA would be a long-term target at $1.2051, but would require a break below key supp at $1.2905, the Jul 2012 supp line, then a break below $1.2746, the 2013 low from Apr.
R 4: $1.3271/79/95 23.6% of $1.2797-1.3417, Lows Jun 13, 14
R 3: $1.3200 High Apr 17
R 2: $1.3161/80/90 Low Jun 20, 21-DMA
R 1: $1.3107/20 50.0% of $1.2797-1.3417, 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.3065
S 1: $1.3034/59 61.8% of $1.2797-1.3417, Low Jun 24
S 2: $1.2998 High May 22
S 3: $1.2921/27/43 Daily Bolli band base, 55-week MA
S 4: $1.2905 Jul 2012 Support line
GBP/USD still pressured to the downside but struggling to close below initial supp at $1.5401/03, the 38.2% of $1.4832-1.5752 and hourly low. A break below here quickly runs into key supp around $1.5380-82, the 50.0% of $1.5009-1.5752, new supp line from May 29 and 55-DMA. Cable has declined after a failed retest of the ascending triangle base on the mthly chart, a break below the May 29 supp line would target the monthly Bollinger band base at $1.5079.
R 4: $1.5566/77 Low Jun 18, 23.6% of $1.5009-1.5752
R 3: $1.5531/35 High Jun 21, 23.6% of $1.4832-1.5752
R 2: $1.5468/83/89 38.2% of $1.5009-1.5752, 21-DMA, Low Jun 7
R 1: $1.5441 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.5420
S 1: $1.5401/03 38.2% of $1.4832-1.5752, Hourly low
S 2: $1.5380/81/82 50.0% $1.5009-1.5752, 55-DMA
S 3: $1.5363/68 Jun 21 low
S 4: $1.5313/14/29 100-DMA, May 10 low, 21-week MA
USD/JPY bounced from the 100-DMA, now support at Y97.04, but price action today has failed to hold within the daily Ichimoku cloud, now part of initial res at Y98.15, just below the hourly high at Y98.24. Daily studies are bullish but weekly studies slide, monthly studies look overbought and may reverse lower. Initial support seen at Y97.65/66, the hourly low and 21-DMA and key further supp from the 100-DMA, which bears will aim to break below.
R 4: Y99.90/94/95 High Apr 22, 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79, High Apr 11
R 3: Y99.09/28 55-DMA, High Jun 10
R 2: Y98.76/83/87 Weekly Tenkan/Dly Kijun/50%, 38.2% Y90.88-103.74, Low Jun 3
R 1: Y98.15/24 Ichimoku cloud base, Hourly high
Latest price: Y97.75
S 1: Y97.65/66 Hourly low, 21-DMA
S 2: Y96.87/97.04 Jun 21 low, 100-DMA
S 3: Y95.77/79/81 High Jun 18, 61.8% of Y90.88-103.74, High Jun 14
S 4: Y94.71/99 Weekly Kijun, May 2010 reversal high & Jun 7 reversal low
EUR/JPY ended lower but failed to leave a lower low, only a lower high, but price action today is already below the daily Tenkan line and now bears look to test the 100-DMA at Y126.87. However, failure to break below yesterday’s low at Y127.30 will likely push the pair up to test the 21-DMA at Y128.76. Ahead of here, but still initial res, is the 200-mth MA at Y128.46. Mthly studies bullish but overbought and wkly studies bearish, pressure to downside remains.
R 4: Y129.82/97 Highs Apr 25 & May 2, Low May 23
R 3: Y129.58/70 55-DMA, High Jun 21
R 2: Y129.39 Weekly Tenkan line & Daily Kijun line
R 1: Y128.45/46/59/76 Hourly high, 200-month MA, Apr 29 high, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y127.45
S 1: Y126.87/96/99/127.06 100-DMA, High Jun 17, 21-week MA, Apr 29 low
S 2: Y126.46 50.0% of Y119.11-133.80& Daily Ichimoku cloud base
S 3: Y126.04/18 Reversal high Mar 12, Jun 7 reversal low
S 4: Y125.57/67 Jun 17 low, Daily Bollinger band base