EUR/USD: The pair corrects a little but the past three sessions left long-lower shadows, but daily studies are turning lower from oversold levels so the correction may steepen. However, weekly and monthly studies are still bullish and a break above the May 2011 res line at $1.3441 would extend gains and confirm a bullish trend. But we turn to support, initial supp at $1.3317/18, former 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3711 and Jun 11 high.
R 4: $1.3451/53 Daily Bollinger band top, 200-week MA
R 3: $1.3439/41 100-month MA, Resistance line from May 2011
R 2: $1.3390 High Jun 13
R 1: $1.3358 Hourly high
Latest price: $1.3318
S 1: $1.3317/18 Former 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3711, High Jun 11
S 2: $1.3279/95 Lows Jun 13, 14
S 3: $1.3250 23.6% of $1.2797-1.3390,
S 4: $1.3228/35 Former 50.0% of $1.3711-1.2743, 23.6% of $1.2797-1.3370
GBP/USD: The cross struggles at the 200-DMA after moving back into the rising channel last week. Friday saw bears attempt a break below the channel base but hit a low around $1.5616, just above former 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832 but ended back around the 200-DMA at $1.5698 to leave a long lower shadow – showing upside pressure remains. Initial support at $1.5652/90 the channel base and 5-DMA. A break below $1.5600 sees a test of $1.5566 – the 23.6% of $1.5009-1.5738.
R 4: $1.5879 Reversal high Feb 1
R 3: $1.5839/45/46 Weekly Bolli band top, High Feb 8, Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.5789/95/5814 61.8% $1.6381-1.4832, 200-week MA, Channel Mid-line
R 1: $1.5732/38 55-month MA, High Jun 13
Latest price: $1.5690
S 1: $1.5652/90 Channel base from Mar 12, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.5606/16 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832, Low Jun 14
S 3: $1.5566 23.6% of $1.5009-1.5738
S 4: $1.5489/96 Low Jun 7, 23.6% of $1.4832-1.5701
USD/JPY: The pair holds above the 76.4% of Y90.88-103.74, initial support alongside the weekly Kijun line and former 38.2% at Y93.98/99, respectively. Weekly studies are bearish and monthly studies are turning lower. A break below here would extend losses to Y93.53/57, the Mar 25 low and 38.2% of Y77.13-103.74 – but continued failure will let bulls back in to test res, initial res at Y94.99 – the May 2010 reversal high and Jun 7 reversal low.
R 4: Y97.01/02/13/29 Low Apr 30, Low May 1, Daily Tenkan, Ichimoku cloud base
R 3: Y96.70 100-DMA
R 2: Y95.79/81 61.8% of Y90.88-103.74, High Jun 14
R 1: Y94.99 May 2010 reversal high & Jun 7 reversal low
Latest price: Y94.70
S 1: Y93.91/98/99 76.4% Y90.88-103.74, Weekly Kijun
S 2: Y93.53/57 Mar 25 low, 38.2% of Y77.13-103.74
S 3: Y92.57 Reversal low Apr 2
S 4: Y90.88 Reversal low Feb 25
EUR/JPY: The cross followed studies lower to move to the base of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, now at Y125.75 but just above the hourly low of Y125.57. Monthly studies likely to turn bearish and further supp at Y124.72/97 – the 61.8% of Y119.11-133.80 and the Jun 13 low. However, current price action is a little higher and bulls may test initial res at Y126.46/67 – 50.0% level and 100-DMA. Failure here turns sentiment lower but upside risk remains.
R 4: Y128.46/59 200-month MA, Apr 29 high
R 3: Y128.12/19 Jun 14 high, 38.2% of Y119.11-133.80 & Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y127.49 Jun 6 low
R 1: Y126.46/67 50.0% of Y119.11-133.80, 100-DMA
Latest price: Y126.20
S 1: Y125.57/75 Hourly low, Daily Ichimoku cloud base
S 2: Y124.72/97 61.8% of Y119.11-133.80, Low Jun 13
S 3: Y124.44/50 23.6% of Y94.12-133.80, Reversal High Mar 20
S 4: Y123.09/33 Former 38.2% of Y169.96-94.12, Reversal high Apr 2011