EUR/USD: The pair holds again above the former Feb 1 resistance line and also the 61.8% of the move from $1.3243-1.2797, now support at $1.3050 and $1.3073, respectively. The topside is currently capped by the 100-DMA and 38.2% of $1.3711-1.2746 at $1.3105 and $1.3127 – we await a breakout to confirm a trend while studies rise, but repeated failure to break above the 100-DMA would encourage bears to move back below the 200-DMA – support at $1.3043.
R 4: $1.3218/28/43 High May 2, High May 1
R 3: $1.3194 High May 8
R 2: $1.3127/38/51 Daily Bollinger band top, 100-week MA
R 1: $1.3105/15/16/17 100-DMA, Highs Jun 5 & Apr 29, 22
Latest price: $1.3100
S 1: $1.3043/50/71 200-DMA, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.3020 50.0% of $1.3243-1.2797
S 3: $1.2961-91 21-DMA, 55-DMA
S 4: $1.2934/36/37 High May 21, Low May 10
GBP/USD: The cross moves higher to hold just below 38.2% of $1.6381-1.4832 and also the res line from Jan 4 – initial res at $1.5424/25. Daily studies continue to climb while wkly studies may show a moderate bullish signal if the week closes around this level or higher, however we advise caution as mthly studies remain bearish and the recent pullback has the potential to stall and reverse lower. Initial support at $1.5330/40/43, the 5 & 100-DMAs and Jun 4 high.
R 4: $1.5606 High May 1
R 3: $1.5569 Former channel base from Mar 12
R 2: $1.5463/65 Upper daily Bollinger band
R 1: $1.5424/25 Res line from Jan 4
Latest price: $1.5400
S 1: $1.5330/40/43 5-DMA, 100-DMA, High Jun 4
S 2: $1.5274/90 Low Jun 4, 55-DMA
S 3: $1.5230/37 21-DMA
S 4: $1.5113/28 Low May 21
USD/JPY: The pair tested support again around the 38.2% of Y90.88-103.74 – now part of initial support at Y98.83, just below the 55-DMA, Jun 3 low and daily Bolli band base at Y98.86/87 and Y99.01, respectively. Failure to break below this level again may see bulls regain control, especially as daily studies are looking increasingly oversold, but weekly studies look overbought. Initial res at Y99.83/90/95, the former Jan 23 support line and highs of Apr 22 and 11.
R 4: Y101.39/45 21-DMA, Reversal high Apr 2009
R 3: Y100.69/71 Daily Tenkan line, 23.6% of Y90.88-103.74
R 2: Y100.41 Daily Kijun line
R 1: Y99.83/90/95 Highs Apr 22, Apr 11
Latest price: Y99.25
S 1: Y98.83-Y99.01 38.2% Y90.88-103.74, 55-DMA
S 2: Y98.45/49/58 High May 6, Low Apr 23, Low May 8
S 3: Y97.79 Aug 2009 high
S 4: Y97.31/35/36 50.0% of Y90.88-103.74, Low Apr 29, Daily Ichimoku cloud top
EUR/JPY: The cross tested the base of the daily Bollinger band yesterday but has rebounded from this level today despite the bearish daily studies. Now bulls look to break back above the 23.6% of Y119.11 to Y133.80 and May 8 high, initial resistance at Y130.33/42. A break above here would run into the dly Kijun and Tenkan lines – further res at Y130.65/79 which was key supp/res before. However, failure at initial res may prompt a retest of initial supp – at Y129.37/51/75.
R 4: Y132.04/08 May 31 high
R 3: Y131.39/41 21-DMA, Highs Jun 4 & 5
R 2: Y130.65/79 Daily Kijun line, Daily Tenkan line
R 1: Y130.33/42 May 8 high
Latest price: Y130.05
S 1: Y129.37/51/75 Weekly Tenkan line, Low Jun 3, Daily Bollinger band base
S 2: Y128.98 Low May 8
S 3: Y128.43/48/59 55-DMA, 200-month MA, Apr 29 high
S 4: Y128.19 38.2% of Y119.11-133.80