EUR/USD Analysis

The pair closed in NY Monday at $1.2976 after rate had recovered off session lows of $1.2942 to $1.3000 before drifting lower into the close. Rate opened Asia with a buoyant tone, some linking this view to UST redemptions and coupon payments for Wednesday ($18.2bln 10-yr UST, coupon $330mln; $41bln 3-yr UST, coupon 284mln). The break above $1.2995/1.3000 began a series of stop triggering which provided the added momentum to take rate on to overnight highs of $1.3026. Reported stops through $1.3035/50 remained intact. Rate eased off highs, met initial support at $1.3014 before settling between $1.3005/15 through the Asian afternoon, trading around $1.3010 into Europe. Eurozone IP and Germany ZEW at 0900GMT seen as focus data this morning, with a fairly light US calendar for this afternoon. Support $1.3000/1.2990 (50%/61.8% $1.2942-1.3026) ahead of $1.2978 (76.4%). Offers now seen placed between $1.3025/35 with those mentioned stops through $1.3035/50, though traders note that decent sell interest then emerges above the $1.3050 level.