A critical reversal today in EURUSD that entirely rejected the attempt above the 1.3200 level that took place in thin trading yesterday as we saw EURUSD swooping back into the old range post-ECB today. If the lows are more or less in here in the 1.3050 area for the moment and we see some consolidation of this sharp move lower overnight/tomorrow, I would like for it to stop short of the 1.3100/25 zone – and 1.3200 is absolute final resistance if an unlikely full-scale reversal sets in. The momentum looks good for bears – many of whom were likely stopped out in frustration recently and are all rushing to get back in now at “bad” prices. Now the focus shifts back to the 1.3000 area that proved a nightmare for bears for much of April. If we can take that out, the goalposts will quickly shift to the 1.2750 lows as the 200-day moving average doesn’t seem to hold much relevance lately. Note the longer term trend-line off the old 1.2042 lows that comes in between 1.2800-and 1.2900 if the pair progresses lower from here.
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