Closed in NY Friday at $1.3030 after rate had recovered off intraday lows of $1.2991 with the dollar under pressure following the release of softer than forecast US Q1 GDP data. The GDP data, along with Jon Hilsenrath’s comment in the WSJ that the Fed is likely to continue their easy money policies, acted to weigh further on the dollar into Asia, with Italy forming a government over the weekend was also mentioned as euro-dollar picked up early demand. The early move triggered stops through $1.3060/65 taking the rate on to $1.3068 ($1.3069 76.4% $1.3094-1.2989) before momentum faltered. Macro/real money accounts were sellers off the highs as rate slipped back to $1.3032, settling between $1.3045/55 through the Asian afternoon. Thursday’s ECB rate decision remains in focus with many suggesting a 25bp rate cut, with interest to see if further credit easing schemes are suggested. Ahead of this we have FOMC Wednesday, recent data likely to have put talk of early tapering on the back burner, US NFP due up Friday. Offers $1.3070-80, stronger interest noted into $1.3100. Support $1.3030-20, more toward $1.3000 ahead of recent lows between $1.2991-89. Stops $1.2980, further demand $1.2960 with larger stops below.
EasyForexNews Research Team