USD: The Dollar is finding mild pressure this morning, but has been able to hold onto a large portion of yesterday’s sizable recovery from weekly lows. A surprisingly strong set of Jobless Claims numbers provided a badly needed boost to the Dollar, as recent US economic data has been lukewarm at best. Overseas risk concerns appear to be subdued going into the weekend, which along with the Yen’s early strength will make it difficult for the Dollar to climb back towards Wednesday’s 21/2-week highs. The Dollar may have to rely again on stronger than expected US data to regain upside momentum, particularly from a first quarter GDP number that is forecast to come in +3.0% or higher. The Dollar may climb up towards the 82.93 level to finish the week, but will still need a fresh infusion of overseas risk concerns to make a sustained upside move.
EUR: The June Euro held onto moderate strength during the Asian trading session, and has fallen back towards unchanged levels going into this US morning’s session. While problems-spots in the peripheral EU continue to smolder, the lack of any headline-generating crisis point late this week has helped to underpin the Euro above the key 130.00 level. However, a decidedly negative shift in Euro zone economic data – particularly from Germany – has ramped out expectations for an ECB rate cut at next week’s meeting. Given the lackluster tone of risk sentiment this morning, the Euro may be vulnerable to further pressure going into the weekend. The June Euro could slide down towards the 129.85 level later today, and will be hoping for a significant improvement in global risk sentiment in order to climb back towards the recent highs.
GBP: The June cable was unable to reach new high ground during the overnight session, but has managed to hold onto yesterday’s enormous gains going into this morning’s trading. With the chances of fresh easing measures from the Bank of England all but extinguished by yesterday’s positive UK GDP reading, the Pound is likely to see further upside if risk sentiment is able to improve going into the weekend. The June Pound could see a retest of the 154.68 overnight highs later in the session, but any large-scale extension to Thursday’s huge rally will be difficult without seeing further evidence of improving UK economic or US conditions.
JPY: The June Yen is holding onto solid gains this morning, but has already seen a sizable pullback from the overnight highs in the wake of last night’s Bank of Japan meeting. While the BOJ held off on fresh easing measures, the Yen found an additional boost from news that the BOJ pushed back their 2% inflation target to the spring of 2016. Earlier in the evening, however, yet another negative year-on-year reading for Japanese CPI underscored the upcoming aggressive easing measures that will be needed in order for that nation to fully shake off the impact of deflation. Unless there is considerable disappointment with today’s US economic data, the Yen will have a difficult time sustaining upside momentum going into this weekend. The June Yen may bounce back towards the 101.62 area later in the session, but today’s early strength will be an opportunity to approach the short side of the market using long put option strategies as the longer-term downtrend is far from being over.
CHF: The June Swiss has been able to make up some lost ground with the Euro, but remains firmly at the lower end of this week’s steep sell off. The head of the SNB stated that the Swiss Franc’s current level is still “elevated”, but provided no hints that their 1.20 floor rate with the Euro would be raised any higher. The June Swiss may climb up towards the 106.20 level later on during today’s session, but will still be looking for a general rebound in global risk sentiment in order make a decisive move away from these recent lows.
CAD: The June Canadian has built upon yesterday’s large up move, and has done so with little to no help from energy and metals markets this morning. Given the strong upside reaction to yesterday’s US Jobless Claims data and with few major Canadian numbers due out until next week, another strong set of US numbers today will help the Canadian Dollar finish out this week with a positive vibe. The June Canadian may rise up to 98.10 level later this morning, and will need a stronger tone from outside markets in order to rise up towards the mid April highs.
EasyForexNews Research Team