EURUSD fell back below 1.3091 (now resistance) which turns focus back to Fri-Mon lows at 1.3017 & 1.2998… USDJPY did not fall out of bed as we feared yesterday, while buyers staged a decent comeback. But while holding below 87.96, there is still an elevated risk for a correction into the high-85s… GBPUSD was refused a mid-high 1.61 test yesterday and this ups the pressure on support around the 1.60-handle. Below 1.5962 would start targeting the Nov’12 low of 1.5825… EURSEK was sent zooming higher on Rix notes yesterday and looks set to test 8.6160\8.6435 as long as holding from closing below yesterday’s 8.5545 mid-body point… USDSEK also looks bullishly positioned for a break through resistance at 6.5675\6.5745… EURNOK is still confined to range and must clear resistance in the 7.3315\7.3530-area to get +7.40 better into sight. Support likely around 7.3050… NOKSEK got a shot in the arm yesterday with EURSEK moving higher while EURNOK is near-term rangebound. Over 1.1720 & 1.1750 in the cross would turn attention to the Dec’12 high of 1.1910… In the EM space we highlight a bullish “Key-day reversal” in the 1mt USDBRL NDF. Over 2.0655 would add credence to this signal and pave the way for additional gains… USDHUF also looks prone to take off higher. Key ref above to watch is located at 225.20… Sellers responded ahead of the key 4.1380 ref yesterday and might fall back closer to 4.1040 to advertise for bids… In the equity markets we highlight that the lower end of the S&P volatility index (VIX) is so low “it can’t go much lower”. Should the front contract sink below 1438 it would likely force a few overconfident longs out… In the EuroStoxx50 index we focus on offers coming in at a 2011-2012 “Equality point” near the market and urge caution on any violation below 2619… Bonds both in the U.S. and in Germany looks positioned for advance today. Important nearby refs for the front contracts in those are located at 132-25 & 143.80… Brent Crude remains bullishly poised and an attempt over $112.82 seems like a reasonable outcome…
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SEB tech team