Our call this week for an important pullback in Euro has taken prices back below the recently broken 2011 uptrend; that is a failure and raises concerns in the medium-term for Euro bulls. In Elliott terms the rally from mid-November could be a 5th and final wave up from the 1.20 lows. (Daily Chart P.2) S/t, a failure occurred on the hourly chart as well as it failed to hold the breakout above 1.3020. So far the sell-off has cleared hourly up-trends. Wave-3 or C is likely done at 1.2915 so a consolidation or rally from current levels will give a big clue to the larger trend…a subsequent break of 1.29 and failure to hold pivot/Fibo support at 1.2894 indicates a much larger move lower is ahead in the coming week(s). Levels: Support – 1.2894, 1.2880, 1.2839 Resistance – 1.2950, 1.3020, 1.3045
Nomura