EUR/USD has now dropped right through the 1.2457 March 2009 low and is on is way to the 1.2329/06 support zone. This consists of the 2008 trough and the 2001-12 uptrend line. Medium term the 200 month moving average at 1.2066 and the psychological 1.2000 mark remain in sight. Immediate resistance can now be seen between the 25th of May 1.2495 low and the 1.2500 level. Further resistance comes in around the 1.2625 January low which coincides with this week’s high. While trading below here, immediate downside pressure should prevail.
GBP/USD has eroded the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s rise at 1.5643 and hit the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.5463 which, together with the November 2011 low at 1.5426, may now offer interim support today. Below this support zone lies the 2009-12 uptrend line at 1.5346. Rallies should find resistance between the 1.5599 March low and the 61.8% retracement at 1.5643. While trading below here, GBP/USD will be directly offered.
AUD/USD minor rebound from last week’s low at .9690 has been short lived with that low now having been breached and the .9664 November 2011 low being back in focus. Failure here will have the .9624 September low and then the .9404/81 support zone in its sights. This is where the November 2009 high, 2011 low and the 2009 and April 2010 highs can be found. Corrective rallies should find resistance along the accelerated downtrend line at .9843 and at this week’s .9897 high.
USD/JPY continues to trade within its three month downtrend channel and is about to hit the 200 day moving average at 78.62. Between it and the January high at 78.29 the currency pair may stabilise, though. Below these levels lies the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s rise at 77.77. Resistance continues to be seen along the upper downtrend channel line at 79.54.
USD/CHF has breached major resistance at .9572/95 which contained the 2008 low and the January high. The January and February 2011 highs at .9776 and .9784 are now being eyed. Above these sit the 2009 low at .9916 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010-11 decline at .9949. Support can now be seen at .9595/72. Dips below it should find interim support at .9529/00, where the 28th of May low and the 18th of May high were made.
EUR/JPY is on track to reach the January low at 97.04 where it may well stabilise again, though. If not, the 2009-12 support line at 95.21 and the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2011-12 decline, projected lower from the March 2012 high, at 95.18 will be in play. Resistance comes in around the 99.25 February low and at the 99.37 24th of May low.
EUR/GBP remains on the defensive and continues to grind lower towards the May trough at .7950. This will remain in focus as long as the currency pair stays below the 25th of May high at .8045. Below .7950 we look for another down leg towards the 2011-12 downtrend channel support line at .7928 to be made. Still further down lies the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2007-08 rise at .7788.
EasyForexNews Research Team