EUR/USD sold off all week and closed below the 1.2530 Fibonacci retracement (just). The new low has not been confirmed by the daily RSI however and this suggests caution here and some near term consolidation. Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.2681 and are expected to struggle at 1.2796/1.2825, this is an interim high and Fibonacci retracement . The 1.2490 support is regarded as the last defence for 1.2067, the 55 MONTH ma.
GBP/USD has sold off to the 61.8% retracement of the move seen in 2012. This is located at 1.5643 and in conjunction with the March low at 1.5599 represents a key zone on the daily chart. The 240 minute RSI continues to diverge and we would allow for the possibility of a small shallow corrective rebound. Rallies will find interim resistance at 1.5789/1.5887 and should remain contained by the 1.5966 region. Below the 1.5599 March low sees a slide to the 1.5463 78.6% retracement then the 2009-2012 support line at 1.5335.
AUD/USD last week sold off to the .9664 November 2011 low and attempted to stabilise here. We may see some further stabilisation here ahead of further losses back to .9407/.9388. This is where the 2011 low and the 2009 and April 2010 highs can be found. The market has a 13 count on the Tom de Mark TD Combo on the daily chart, that suggests caution. We also note the triple divergence of the 240 minute RSI and this also raises a red warning flag – we would lighten up short positions or tighten stops. We would allow for a corrective rebound to .9935, .9989/1.00
USD/JPY last week recovered slightly but the chart remains dominated by the down channel at 79.88 today – this still leaves near term risk on the downside. We suspect the market is attempting to stabilise, we note that the daily RSI has not confirmed the recent break to a new low but equally price has not managed to overcome the 79.88 down channel. While capped here we will assume the risk remains for losses to the 200 day ma at 78.59 and possibly to 77.79 – the 78.6% retracement of the same move.
USD/CHF has rallied higher last week to reach major resistance at .9572/.9595, this is the 2008 low and the 2012 high, we would allow this to hold the initial test and provoke some profit taking. The daily RSI has diverged and will we assume will lead to a corrective phase this week. Dips lower will find interim support at .9478 ahead of .9395/35. This represents the March high and the 38.2% retracement. Note cloud support on the 240 minute chart is currently at .9420 and this has underpinned the chart since the beginning of May. The .9572/95 resistance is key longer term, we will need to see this broken clearly. This will introduce scope to the .9950/61.8% retracement of the move down from 2010.
EUR/JPY came under increasing downside pressure last week and sold off to 99.25 the February low, which is regarded as the last defense for the January low at 97.04. Rallies will find initial resistance now at 102.13/14, interim high and the 23.6% retracement of the move down from the April peak. Trendline resistance lies at 103.44. While below here, an overall downside bias should be maintained.
EUR/GBP last week filled its gap to .8096 and then came under pressure the rest of the week. However, we are not convinced the correction higher is over- the market recently charted a key week reversal from the base of its channel.However rallies will find interim resistance at .8100/01 and should remain contained by .8221, the January low, we also find here the 23.6% retracement of the move down from the 0.9802 June 2011 peak. While below here, the medium term outlook will stay bearish. Dips lower will find minor support at .8000 ahead of .7950. Below .7950 we look for another down leg towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move in 2007-2008 at .7795.
EasyForexNews Research Team