EUR/USD aggressively and has reached the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year so far. While this may hold the initial test, the risk will remain on the downside and a move below 1.2954 is expected to trigger another leg on the downside to the 1.2624 January low. Interim support is 1.2809, the 78.6% retracement. We have a time zone gap back to 1.3081 and it is likely that the market will attempt to partially fill this ahead of further declines. Key resistance are the downtrends at 1.3454/64.
GBP/USD remains downside corrective very near term. There is scope for a deeper retracement to 1.6050, the 23.6% retracement of the move seen this year (and the 50% retracement of the move up from mid April) and possibly 1.5954, the 4 month uptrend. While above here the market remains on course to challenge to 1.6425/the 78.6% retracement of the move down from the 2011 peak. We have minor resistance ahead of here – a one year resistance line at 1.6336. Key support is the 1.5821/05 double Fibonacci retracement and the April low.
AUD/USD has broken down from a consolidation range and into new lows for the year. The sell off has reached 1.0122, the 61.8% retracement of the move up from October. While this may hold the initial test, we look for losses to .9950/19, a double Fibo. Technical indicators remain negative. We have a time zone gap back to 1.0181 which is likely to be partially filled ahead of further losses. Rallies should remain capped now by 1.0248/93, the 50% retracement of the last leg down and the April low. Our long term target is for a slide back to .9407/.9388, this is the 2011 low and the 2009 and April 2010 highs.
USD/JPY chart is dominated by the 80.84 resistance line. We would currently allow for further slippage to 79.15/78.90 (61.8% retracement and the 55 week ma), where we would expect the market to stabilise and recover. Only a break above the 80.84 resistance line would allow for gains to the 82.51 cloud resistance and 83.31/39 then the 84.19 recent high. The top of the daily cloud is likely to act as resistance en route.
USD/CHF has severed the .9176 resistance line. We have a time zone gap to .9184 and we would allow this to be filled ahead of further gains. Slightly longer term, we view the price action this year as a consolidation, in an overall bull trend. The move above .9184 adds weight to the idea that the bull trend had resumed. Initial upside target is .9317/42, the March peak, pivot and 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year. A close above here will target .9595, this years high.
EUR/GBP accelerated lower – through 0.8067, the 2010 low. We have a large gap on the chart to .8096, which we will look to be filled ahead of further losses. We have a trendline extending back to 2007 at .8027 and we would expect to see some profit taking here. Below .8027 will target .7795 longer term. This is the 61.8% retracement of the move 2007-2008. Rallies should find initial resistance at .8096 ahead of the .8164 resistance line. Key resistance remains.8221, the January low.
EUR/JPY has sold off – eroding its recent low at 104.625, Fibonacci support and cloud support. It is under pressure and likely to see further losses to 102.54, the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year and possibly 100.12/00. The market will find the previous low at 104.625 will offer immediate resistance ahead of the 105.00 base of the cloud – key resistance is the downtrend at 106.33, while capped here the market will remain directly offered.
EasyForexNews Research Team