EUR/USD remains on the defensive., it has recently eroded the top of cloud support, the 55 day moving average and the 50% retracement support at 1.3055. It is currently sitting on support at 1.3000. There is a loss of downside momentum on the intraday charts, and we would allow for a near term bounce from here ahead of further losses. We look for losses to 1.2974/54, the February low, with a break below here triggering the slide to the 1.2624 January low. Intraday rallies will find resistance at 1.3192/1.3291 and will remain directly offered below here. We continue to view the 1.3487 recent high as an interim ceiling for the market. While trading below here, the outlook will remain bearish.
GBP/USD is sidelined at key short term support at 1.5650/43, we have traded through this but not closed below it yet. We look for near term rallies to remain tepid and we look for the market to struggle 1.5747/1.5833 for an immediate negative bias to remain entrenched. A close below 1.5643 should be enough to trigger another leg lower and this should leave the focus on the 1.5235 January low. Interim supports lie at 1.5524, 1.5397. These are the 61.8% and the 78.6% retracements We regard the recent high at 1.5992 as the interim ceiling for the market.
AUD/USD appears to be attempting to stabilise as it approaches the 200 day ma at 1.0404. We would allow for some further near term consolidation. Beyond this we maintain our bearish bias – we view the market as having topped recently and we target 1.0382/40, the December 2011 high and a top measurement to 1.0340. Intraday rallies will find resistance at 1.0570/75 and 1.0670 and the market will remain directly offered intraday below here. The 1.0815/57 resistance area where several February highs were made is viewed as a ceiling for price.
USD/CHF has tested but failed at the .9317 October 2011 peak and the .9342/61.8% retracement looks in need of some consolidation. We would allow for a slide back towards the .9185 6 week support line. Key support remains the .9066 November 2011 low and while this continues to hold the downside we will maintain an overall bullish stance. A close above the .9317 pivot will initiate further upside buying interest towards the .9595 January peak.
USD/JPY is consolidating very near term following its recent move to its initial target of 83.80. We would allow for a slightly deeper retracement towards the 82.23 May 2011 peak. We view this as corrective only – this is not regarded as the end of the move. We look for the retracement to be contained by the base of the cloud on the 240 minute chart. The cloud is currently located at 81.45/81.83. While this holds, the bull move is fully entrenched and targets are 85.53, the April high then 86.80. This is the 23.6% retracement of the move down from 2007.
EUR/GBP has not managed to sever the 2 month uptrend at 0.8320 and we await a close below here to confirm the break lower. This should be enough to signal the resumption of the down move and target the .8265 February low and then the .8221 January trough. We assume that the recent peak at .8423 is an interim peak but key resistance remains 0.8505/30 (the recent high and the 8 month downtrend). While capped here our medium term outlook is bearish.
EUR/JPY has met an interim target of the 55 week moving average and July low at 109.32/58 and we would allow for some profit taking here very near term. We would allow for a retracement to the 107.41 6 week uptrend and look for signs of stabilisation here. Beyond this we look for gains to the 50% retracement of the April-to- January decline at 110.26 and the October peak at 111.57. Below 107.41 would target the 2 month uptrend at 104.97, where ideally we should see signs of stabilisation. Note that we consider KEY support to be 102.21/101.79, the 14th February low.
EasyForexNews Research Team