Technical Analysis

The dollar is strong despite stellar US stock market performance and this is impressive… Key below in EURUSD remains at 1.2974 and the market is closing in on it… The USD index was allowed to bullishly violate the key 80.12 ref and this opens up for more dollar buying… The 10y JAP/US IRS spread widened in this and this helps guiding USDJPY further north – next key ref above at 85.50 is coming into view (trailing stops likely under the 82-handle… EURCAD likely to break the yearly low (1.2870) and home in on the 2011 low of 1.2754… EURSEK surprisingly U-turned yesterday and pressure is back on the 8.8585 ref. Resistance likely at/above 8.90… EURNOK lends no strong directional clues while inside 7.44\7.48… The kiwi also looks vulnerable to dollar strength and NZDUSD is likely to trace out losses to/below the 0.81 handle… Bonds fell hard yesterday and recent losses will take some time to absorb. Key level for the 10y German Bund at 137.41 and for the US 10y note front contract at 129-16… S&P500 rallied strongly yesterday (totally defying the intraday stretch). The high end of a broader wedge, now at 1402 is in focus… Brent Crude is still edging higher and so is the CRB index, but the latter is likely to fall hard from just tics above current levels…

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SEB tech team