Last week was a good one for the dollar as the USD Index posted a reversal week against important retracement levels. The implication is that the 2012 downtrend is over and further USD strength should be expected this week. In the majors, we would view EUR/USD breaking below 1.3145 as signalling further weakness towards 1.29. In EM, the cleanest chart is USD/INR, where a close above 50.00 would confirm the 2012 downtrend is over.
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Barclays Capital