Daily Market Technicals

The recovery from Wednesday’s $1.0499 low has reached $1.0678 andhas done nothing more than help ease the immediate oversold hourly conditions. While capped here, the risk will be for a pullback towards $1.0565-$1.0540. These protect $1.0499 again, beneath here and $1.0431 and $1.0388 become the next targets. In the interim, need back above $1.0645-$1.0678, before an assault can be made on the more important $1.0750 level.
RES 4: $1.0836/40 Mar 10 high, Mar 6 low
RES 3: $1.0750 Hourly congestion area Mar 10
RES 2: $1.0678 Mar 12 high
RES 1: $1.0645 Hourly resistance
PRICE: $1.0594
SUP 1: $1.0565/70 Hourly support
SUP 2: $1.0540 Hourly basing area Mar 11
SUP 3: $1.0499 Mar 11 low
SUP 4: $1.0431 August 1997 low

Failure below $1.5030 on Thursday, the catalyst for the latest fall. This now sees congested support in the $1.4835-$1.4814 area, as the main hope for any fresh revival on the day. Failure to hold around here will leave only tenuous old daily lows as the protection against an eventual fall towards the next support of note at $1.4584. This the 1.618 swing target of the $1.4954-$1.5552 recovery. Need above $1.4958-$1.5020 for near term remission
RES 4: $1.5070 Hourly congestion Mar 10-Mar 11
RES 3: $1.5020 Mar 12 high
RES 2: $1.4958 Hourly basing area Mar 12
RES 1: $1.4897 Hourly resistance
PRICE: $1.4862
SUP 1: $1.4835 Mar 2013 low
SUP 2: $1.4814/18 2% volatility band, July 2013 low
SUP 3: $1.4783 Mar 2010 low
SUP 4: $1.4688 Jun 21 2010 low

The focus is back on the Y121.60-67 area, after the downside held above Y120.62 support on Thursday. Will need to see a move above here, before the near term bias will swing back to the topside and an assault on the week’s earlier Y121.99 high. The reward of a further break here, will be a run at Y122.68-Y122.77, the latter a 1.618 swing of the Y121.99-Y120.73 fall. Loss of Y120.95 will disappoint now, putting Y120.62-Y120.73 back under pressure
RES 4: Y123.12 2% volatility band
RES 3: Y122.68 7 week bull channel top
RES 2: Y121.99 Mar 10 high
RES 1: Y121.67 Mar 12 high
PRICE: Y121.48
SUP 1: Y120.95/05 Hourly support
SUP 2: Y120.62/73 Mar 9, Mar 12 lows
SUP 3: Y120.38 Mar 5 high, now support
SUP 4: Y119.91 Mar 6 low

The recovery has failed to make much of an impression so far, failing on Thursday at Y129.02. This leaves the downside vulnerable to another assault, with Y127.95-Y128.00 seen as the key near term support area. This protecting Y127.67 again and more importantly against a further Y126.94-Y126.22 decline. Ideally need to sustain support above Y128.45, if the recovery is to have a another chance. Y129.28-Y129.94 then key resistance levels.
RES 4: Y130.21 Jan 23 low, now resistance
RES 3: Y129.94 Mar 11 high
RES 2: Y129.28 Mar 10 low
RES 1: Y129.02 Mar 12 high
PRICE: Y128.43
SUP 1: Y127.95/00 Hourly support
SUP 2: Y127.67 Feb 2013 high, Mar 11 low
SUP 3: Y126.94 1.618 swing target of Y127.67-Y128.82
SUP 4: Y126.22 1.618 swing target of Y130.21-Y136.66

The fall held on Wednesday from just above the base of the 6 year bear channel, at Stg0.7011 by time this week. The subsequent recovery has so far faltered at Stg0.7146, in line with a 61.8% Fibo retrace of losses from Monday’s Stg0.7219 high. Overbought near term, need to hold above Stg0.7084 initially and then more importantly Stg0.7037, if the rally is to continue. Through Stg0.7146 and look to Stg0.7171-Stg0.7219 next.
RES 4: Stg0.7233 6 week falling resistance line
RES 3: Stg0.7219 Mar 9 high
RES 2: Stg0.7171 Mar 9 low, now resistance
RES 1: Stg0.7146 Mar 12 high, hourly recovery Mar 10
PRICE: Stg0.7116
SUP 1: Stg0.7084 Initial recovery high Mar 11
SUP 2: Stg0.7037/41 Mar 12 low, 2% volatilty band
SUP 3: Stg0.7011 6 year bear channel base projection
SUP 4: Stg0.6960 July 2006 high, 6 week channel base