FX Daily

With a thin calendar in terms of data releases main focus will be on ECB speeches as the ECB hosts the annual conference ‘ECB and its watchers’ in Frankfurt. The speakers include President Mario Draghi, chief economist Peter Praet and Austrian and Finnish central bank governors Ewald Nowotny and Erkki Liikanen.

We estimate that UK manufacturing production declined slightly m/m in January, after it grew in both November and December. One should not put too much weight on this decline, as the index is very volatile on a monthly basis and even if we are right, manufacturing production has still grown by 0.6% 3M/3M.

The detailed talks ahead of a potential final agreement to extend aid to Greece will begin in both Brussels and Athens today. The reform list is so far not comprehensive enough for the disbursement of the outstanding loan tranche but according to a Greek official Greece will keep updating it. Note that lack of funds has implied the Greek government is pressing the country’s social security funds to hand over bank deposits such that the government can meet its debt obligations, see FT.

In Sweden attention is on inflation with the release of the February CPIF inflation and Prospera’s inflation expectations survey. There is also focus on the Danish current account surplus, which helps to explain the appreciation pressure on the DKK.

Read the full report: FX Daily