Losses have continued following last week’s break below $1.1260 with Thursday’s break of the psychological $1.1000 level, although having lacked follow through so far, shifting immediate focus to the $1.0765 Sept 2003 monthly low. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above $1.1154 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to $1.1390-1.1451. O/B studies and the Bollinger base are key concerns for bears.
RES 4: $1.1279 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.1217 High Mar 3
RES 2: $1.1154 Low Mar 3 now resistance
RES 1: $1.1114 Hourly support Mar 4 now resistance
PRICE: $1.1022
SUP 1: $1.0987 2015 Low Mar 5
SUP 2: $1.0821 Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.0765 Monthly Low Sept 3 2003
SUP 4: $1.0563 Monthly Low Apr 7 2003
Losses continued Thursday following the close below the 21-DMA Wednesday with immediate bearish focus on the supports clustered tightly $1.5190-98. The Bollinger band base may limit follow through on a break lower but a close below $1.5198 would see overall focus confirmed on the $1.4951-88 region where 2015 lows are located. Bulls need a close above $1.5325 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.5398 to
target the 100-DMA ($1.5524).
RES 4: $1.5398 High Mar 3
RES 3: $1.5356 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.5325 Hourly support Mar 4 now resistance
RES 1: $1.5269 High Mar 5
PRICE: $1.5242
SUP 1: $1.5198 Ichimoku cloud base, Low Feb 10
SUP 2: $1.5190 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $1.4988 Monthly Low Feb 3
SUP 4: $1.4951 2015 Low Jan 23
The bounce from ¥119.38 resulted in a test of the ¥120.42-48 region with the Bollinger band top capping. Narrowing Bollinger bands are often a precursor to a breakout and that is what the pair is likely building up to. A close below the channel base is needed to confirm breaks of the 21 & 55-DMAs, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus to the 100-DMA at ¥117.37. Topside, a close above ¥120.48 confirms bullish focus on the 2014 highs
RES 4: ¥120.78 High Dec 9
RES 3: ¥120.78 2015 High Jan 2
RES 2: ¥120.48 High Feb 11
RES 1: ¥120.42 Bollinger band top
PRICE: ¥119.99
SUP 1: ¥119.93 Hourly support Mar 6
SUP 2: ¥119.76 Hourly support Mar 5
SUP 3: ¥119.38 Low Mar 3
SUP 4: ¥119.29 21-DMA
Thursday’s spike higher lacked follow through with the fresh 2 month lows that followed reconfirming current bearish focus on the ¥129.97 monthly low from Sept 2013. A close above the falling daily trend line is now needed by bulls to ease the current bearish pressure whereas above the 21-DMA shifts overall focus back to the key ¥136.72 resistance. The Bollinger band base and O/S daily studies remain key concerns for bears and may limit follow through.
RES 4: ¥135.59 High Feb 24
RES 3: ¥134.58 21-DMA
RES 2: ¥133.74 Falling daily trend line
RES 1: ¥132.76 Hourly resistance Mar 5
PRICE: ¥132.26
SUP 1: ¥132.11 Low Mar 5
SUP 2: ¥131.96 Hourly support Jan 30
SUP 3: ¥129.97 Monthly Low Sept 6 2013
SUP 4: ¥128.27 Weekly Bollinger band base
Bulls continue to look for a close above £0.7301 to ease the bearish pressure that sees overall bearish focus on the £0.7090-0.7114 region. The Bollinger band base has so far limited follow through with O/S daily studies also a concern for bears. Overall bulls need to see a close above £0.7352 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bearish hopes and hint at a bigger bounce that initially targets the £0.7462 level.
RES 4: £0.7352 High Feb 9
RES 3: £0.7301 High Mar 3
RES 2: £0.7286 High Mar 5
RES 1: £0.7252 Hourly resistance Mar 5
PRICE: £0.7228
SUP 1: £0.7219 2015 Low Mar 5
SUP 2: £0.7204 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: £0.7114 Low Dec 17 2007
SUP 4: £0.7090 Monthly Low Dec 3 2007