Following Thursday’s break of the key $1.1260 support the pair has remained heavy and continues to oscillate around the falling Bollinger band base ($1.1147). Layers of resistance are noted $1.1217-1.1318 with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA ($1.1318) to shift immediate focus to the $1.1389-1.1451 region. While $1.1260 caps immediate focus remains on the 2015 low with a break lower seeing bears targeting $1.0765.
RES 4: $1.1288 Falling daily trend line
RES 3: $1.1279 Low Feb 20 now resistance
RES 2: $1.1260 Low Jan 28 now resistance
RES 1: $1.1217 High Mar 3
PRICE: $1.1170
SUP 1: $1.1154 Low Mar 3
SUP 2: $1.1097 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 3: $1.1015 High Sept 1 2003 now support
SUP 4: $1.0765 Monthly Low Sept 3 2003
The correction lower from last week’s failure ahead of the 100-DMA sees GBP/USD trading below the 21-DMA ($1.5361) for the first time since closing above in early Feb. Immediate focus has now shifted to the $1.5311-16 region with bears now looking for a close below the 55-DMA to initially target $1.5184-1.5210 and to see overall focus return to 2015 lows. Bulls need a close above $1.5397 to ease bearish pressure and target the 100-DMA.
RES 4: $1.5542 100-DMA
RES 3: $1.5511 Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
RES 2: $1.5467 Hourly support Feb 25 now resistance
RES 1: $1.5398 High Mar 3
PRICE: $1.5350
SUP 1: $1.5316 Low Feb 17
SUP 2: $1.5311 55-DMA
SUP 3: $1.5210 Ichimoku cloud base
SUP 4: $1.5184 Bollinger band base
The 21-DMA has supported on dips in the latter half of Feb with the 55-DMA noted just below at ¥118.86. The channel base comes in around ¥118.66 today with bears needing a close below to confirm breaks of the 21 & 55-DMAs, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus to the 100-DMA at ¥117.11. Initial support is noted at ¥119.38 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure a little. While ¥119.38 supports immediate bullish focus remains on the ¥120.48-50 region.
RES 4: ¥120.78 2015 High Jan 2
RES 3: ¥120.50 Bollinger band top
RES 2: ¥120.48 High Feb 11
RES 1: ¥120.04 Hourly support Mar 2 now resistance
PRICE: ¥119.64
SUP 1: ¥119.38 Low Mar 3
SUP 2: ¥119.09 Hourly resistance Feb 26 now support
SUP 3: ¥119.04 21-DMA
SUP 4: ¥118.66 Rising daily channel base
Recent flirtations with the 21-DMA resulted in a break lower last Thursday with the close below ¥134.44 shifting overall focus back to the ¥129.97 level. Bulls now need to see a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and to shift overall focus back to the key ¥136.72 resistance. The Bollinger band base remains the key concern for bears and is likely to moderate any substantial move lower but a close below ¥133.44 would reconfirm the bearish bias and the ¥129.97 target
RES 4: ¥136.23 High Feb 17
RES 3: ¥135.59 High Feb 24
RES 2: ¥134.78 21-DMA
RES 1: ¥134.60 High Mar 2
PRICE: ¥133.60
SUP 1: ¥133.44 Low Feb 27
SUP 2: ¥133.06 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥132.22 Low Feb 2
SUP 4: ¥131.96 Hourly support Jan 30
With the Bollinger band base having limited follow through and studies remaining very O/S the EUR/GBP is drifting a little higher with a close above £0.7301 now needed to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. Overall the 21-DMA remains key with bears needing a close above to hint at a decent correction initially targeting layers of resistance £0.7462-0.7595. While the 21-DMA caps overall focus remains on the £0.7090-0.7114 region.
RES 4: £0.7462 High Feb 9
RES 3: £0.7370 21-DMA
RES 2: £0.7352 Hourly resistance Feb 23
RES 1: £0.7301 High Mar 3
PRICE: £0.7272
SUP 1: £0.7232 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: £0.7223 2015 Low Mar 2
SUP 3: £0.7114 Low Dec 17 2007
SUP 4: £0.7090 Monthly Low Dec 3 2007