The EUR/USD continues to struggle following Thursday’s break of the $1.1260 level with immediate bearish focus on the 2015 low. Initial resistance remains $1.1245-79 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure whereas a close above $1.1389 is needed to shift focus back to the $1.1451-1.1540 region. The key concern for bears comes from the Bollinger band base ($1.1169) which continues to limit follow through.
RES 4: $1.1389 High Feb 25
RES 3: $1.1334 Low Feb 25 now resistance
RES 2: $1.1279 Low Feb 20 now resistance
RES 1: $1.1260 Low Jan 28 now resistance
PRICE: $1.1198
SUP 1: $1.1161 Low Mar 2
SUP 2: $1.1097 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 3: $1.1015 High Sept 1 2003 now support
SUP 4: $1.0765 Monthly Low Sept 3 2003
The recent rally appears to be in trouble following the failure ahead of and pullback from the 100-DMA Thursday. The $1.5316-52 region is now seen as key support with bears needing a close below to confirm breaks of key DMAs, ending bullish hopes and hinting at a move back to 2015 lows. While key support remains bulls will initially target $1.5549-1.5622 with a close above $1.5511 needed to reconfirm an overall bullish bias.
RES 4: $1.5549 100-DMA
RES 3: $1.5511 Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
RES 2: $1.5467 Hourly support Feb 25 now resistance
RES 1: $1.5428 High Mar 2
PRICE: $1.5381
SUP 1: $1.5352 Low Feb 27, 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.5316 Low Feb 17, 55-DMA
SUP 3: $1.5214 Ichimoku cloud base
SUP 4: $1.5157 Bollinger band base
The latest recovery from tests of the 21 & 55-DMAs resulted in a rally towards the ¥120.48-50 region Monday although the lack of follow through is a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears need a close below ¥119.50 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see focus once again return to the ¥118.57-94 region where the channel base, 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bears continue to look for a close below the channel base to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and targeting ¥115.45-116.97.
RES 4: ¥120.78 2015 High Jan 2
RES 3: ¥120.50 Bollinger band top
RES 2: ¥120.48 High Feb 11
RES 1: ¥120.04 Hourly support Mar 2 now resistance
PRICE: ¥119.65
SUP 1: ¥119.50 High Feb 26 now support
SUP 2: ¥119.09 Hourly resistance Feb 26 now support
SUP 3: ¥118.94 21-DMA
SUP 4: ¥118.57 Rising daily channel base
Recent flirtations with the 21-DMA resulted in a break lower Thursday with the close below ¥134.44 shifting overall focus back to the ¥129.97 level. Bulls now need to see a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and to shift overall focus back to the key ¥136.72 resistance. The Bollinger band base remains the key concern for bears and is likely to moderate any substantial move lower
RES 4: ¥136.23 High Feb 17
RES 3: ¥135.59 High Feb 24
RES 2: ¥134.72 21-DMA
RES 1: ¥134.60 High Mar 2
PRICE: ¥133.98
SUP 1: ¥133.44 Low Feb 27
SUP 2: ¥133.23 Bollinger band base
SUP 3: ¥132.22 Low Feb 2
SUP 4: ¥131.96 Hourly support Jan 30
Relentless bearish pressure resulted in a dip to fresh 7+ year lows in early Asian trading Monday with bears focused on the £0.7114 level last seen in Dec 2007. Layers of resistance continue to accumulate with bulls needing a close above Friday’s £0.7298 high to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift overall focus back to the £0.7595 level. The Bollinger band base and O/S studies remain key concerns for bears
RES 4: £0.7462 High Feb 9
RES 3: £0.7384 21-DMA
RES 2: £0.7352 Hourly resistance Feb 23
RES 1: £0.7304 High Mar 2
PRICE: £0.7278
SUP 1: £0.7231 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: £0.7223 2015 Low Mar 2
SUP 3: £0.7114 Low Dec 17 2007
SUP 4: £0.7090 Monthly Low Dec 3 2007