Given that narrowing Bollinger bands are often a precursor to a fresh move and the EUR/USD broke and closed below $1.1260 Thursday it suggests a fresh leg lower is underway. Initial resistance is now noted $1.1260-79 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure whereas a close above $1.1389 is needed to shift focus back to the $1.1451-1.1540 region. Immediate bearish focus is now on 2015 lows.
RES 4: $1.1389 High Feb 25
RES 3: $1.1334 Low Feb 25 now resistance
RES 2: $1.1279 Low Feb 20 now resistance
RES 1: $1.1260 Low Jan 28 now resistance
PRICE: $1.1213
SUP 1: $1.1184 Low Feb 26
SUP 2: $1.1097 2015 Low Jan 26
SUP 3: $1.1015 High Sept 1 2003 now support
SUP 4: $1.0765 Monthly Low Sept 3 2003
The recent rally appears to be in trouble following the failure ahead of and pullback from the 100-DMA Thursday. The $1.5316-27 region is now seen as key support with bears needing a close below to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2015 lows. While key support remains bulls will initially target $1.5561-1.5622 with a close above $1.5511 needed to reconfirm an overall bullish bias. Key concerns for bulls come from O/B daily studies.
RES 4: $1.5584 Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.5561 100-DMA, 21-WMA
RES 2: $1.5511 Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
RES 1: $1.5467 Hourly support Feb 25 now resistance
PRICE: $1.5442
SUP 1: $1.5394 Low Feb 26
SUP 2: $1.5327 21 & 55-DMAs
SUP 3: $1.5316 Low Feb 17
SUP 4: $1.5214 Ichimoku cloud base
Bulls continue to take comfort in the failure to break below the 21-DMA and rising daily channel base with a close below the 21-DMA not seen since the break above in early Feb. Bears continue to look for a close below the channel base to end bullish hopes and target Y115.45-116.66. The Y119.85-120.48 resistance region remains the initial focus with bulls needing a close above to confirm the bullish bias and initially target 2014 highs
RES 4: Y120.78 2015 High Jan 2
RES 3: Y120.48 High Feb 11
RES 2: Y119.84 High Feb 24
RES 1: Y119.50 High Feb 26
PRICE: Y119.24
SUP 1: Y119.09 Hourly resistance Feb 26 now support
SUP 2: Y118.66 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y118.40 Rising daily channel base
SUP 4: Y116.66 Low Feb 2
Recent flirtations with the 21-DMA resulted in a break lower Thursday with the close below ¥134.44 shifting overall focus back to the ¥129.97 level. Bulls now need a close above ¥134.44 to ease bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21-DMA is needed to shift focus back to the key ¥136.72 level. the Bollinger band base is seen as the key concern for bears and is likely to moderate any substantial move lower
RES 4: ¥135.59 High Feb 24
RES 3: ¥134.71 21-DMA
RES 2: ¥134.44 Low Feb 23 now resistance
RES 1: ¥134.00 Hourly resistance Feb 26
PRICE: ¥133.68
SUP 1: ¥132.68 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: ¥132.22 Low Feb 2
SUP 3: ¥131.96 Hourly support Jan 30
SUP 4: ¥129.97 Monthly Low Sept 6 2013
The daily Bollinger band base is currently limiting follow through as EUR/GBP continues to trade at fresh 2015 and 7+ year lows on a daily basis and is fast approaching the £0.7239 support. A break of this level then sees bears focusing in the £0.7090-7114 region where Dec 2007 monthly lows are located. Bulls need a close above £0.7352 to ease bearish pressure whereas a close above £0.7462 is needed to hint at a bounce that targets the £0.7595 level
RES 4: £0.7520 Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance
RES 3: £0.7462 High Feb 9
RES 2: £0.7407 21-DMA
RES 1: £0.7352 Hourly resistance Feb 23
PRICE: £0.7258
SUP 1: £0.7253 Bollinger band base
SUP 2: £0.7239 High Dec 12 2007 now resistance
SUP 3: £0.7114 Low Dec 17 2007
SUP 4: £0.7090 Monthly Low Dec 3 2007